Tuesday, April 19, 2011

HDFC Bank - RU4QFY2011 - Accumulate

Result Update on HDFC Bank for 4QFY2011 with an Accumulate recommendation and a Target Price of `2655(12 months)

 

For 4QFY2011, HDFC Bank reported healthy 33.2% yoy growth in net profit to `1,115cr, in line with our estimate of `1,110cr. The bank continued to maintain healthy operating performance with strong profitability growth. We maintain our Accumulate recommendation on the stock.

Consistently healthy performance on all parameters: Overall business growth of the bank was healthy for 4QFY2011 despite a typical fourth quarter slowdown in advances. The bank was able to maintain its reported NIM at 4.2% despite the rising cost of funds for the system as a whole. Over the past few quarters, the bank has been witnessing a slowdown in saving account deposit growth, which came down to 27.2% in 4QFY2011 from 42.8% in 4QFY2010. Despite this, the bank's CASA ratio remained the best in the industry at 52.7% (51% after adjusting for one-offs). The asset quality continued to improve substantially with slippages halving from 2.6% in FY2010 to 1.1% in FY2011 and provisioning expenses to average assets declining to 0.8% in FY2011 from 1.1% in FY2010. NPA coverage improved further to 82.5%, even without considering the strong floating  provisions (accounting for over 53.4% of provisioning expenses during the quarter). The bank currently has an outstanding floating provision pool of ~`730cr, building a cushion against future asset-quality pressures.

Outlook and valuation: At the CMP, the stock is trading at 3.2x FY2013E P/ABV, which is below our target multiple of 3.6x (benchmarked at ~25% premium to our Sensex target multiple). We believe HDFC Bank is well positioned for high qualitative growth, with CASA and cost-to-income ratio returning to pre-CBoP levels. In our view, with strong capital adequacy and healthy branch expansion, the bank is set to further gain credit and CASA market share accompanied by reduction in NPA provision costs. We maintain our Accumulate recommendation on the stock with a target price of `2,671.

Monday, April 18, 2011

Event Update - McNally bags order worth Rs379cr (Errata)

Event Update on McNally Bharat Engineering

 

McNally bags order worth Rs379cr

McNally Bharat Engineering's MHE division has bagged order from Steel Authority of India Ltd worth Rs379cr for design, engineering and supply of By-Product Plant at its Bhilai plant. Order is to be delivered over 24 months. The company's consolidated order book at the end of 3QFY2011 stood at Rs4,370cr (2.4x FY2010 revenues), which currently stands at Rs4,340cr (2.4x FY2010 revenues).

 

We believe that an improving economic scenario, continuous government focus on infrastructure spend and pick-up in private capex augurs well for the companies providing EPC solutions to the core sectors of the economy.

 

At Rs222, the stock is available at attractive valuations of 7.6x and 5.5 FY2012E and FY2013E earnings and 4.5x & 3.7 FY2012E &FY2013E EV/EBITDA. We maintain our Buy rating on the stock, with a Target Price of Rs307.


Sunday, April 17, 2011

Planning for Retirement

Amruta is keen to save for the long term. She still has over 15 years of service in her job with a bank, and will be eligible for pension when she retires. Should her savings consider her retirement needs? Or is too far for her to worry? It is never too early to plan for retirement. We all go through a stage in life, when we hold a regular income yielding job or profession, and reach the stage when we no longer work. To plan for retirement is to set aside today’s funds for tomorrow. And to ensure that we receive a comfortable level of income from our investments, even if our regular income ceases to flow in.

There are two components to planning for retirement. The first is the building of a corpus by saving from our regular income. The deployment of this corpus should have the single objective of accumulation into a large value by the time we are ready to retire. The second is the deployment of the corpus to fund our retirement. How much we save, how we invest the saving, and how we modify the investment pattern based on our needs, is the gist of planning for retirement.

Amruta, like so many of us, contributes to her provident fund and plans to invest the proceeds after retirement into an annuity scheme which will pay her a regular fixed pension in her retirement years. She thinks it is good to invest in safe avenues and to deploy the corpus such that the capital is not put to risk. Is she doing the right thing?

Not really, Amruta needs to worry about a few things. If the need is growth, her investments need to focus on assets such as equity funds. Her pre-retirement saving needs to be growth-oriented to become a larger corpus. If the need is income, investments needs to focus on assets such as debt funds. Her post-retirement investment needs to be income-oriented to provide for her regularly. Amruta needs to harness the power of asset allocation. If she chooses to stick to one type of income-yielding asset when she accumulates her corpus as well as draws from it, she exposes herself to risk. She needs an equity-oriented strategy when she accumulates, and a debt-oriented strategy after her retirement when she draws upon her investments. Retirement planning is a deft and dynamic exercise in asset allocation that rebalances equity and debt, or growth and income, based on the changing need of the investor.

Amruta’s asset allocation in the pre-retirement stage should leverage the time available before her retirement. Amruta will be able to invest in growth assets like equity, which may be volatile in the short term, but earn a higher return in the long term. She should target building a larger corpus for the same level of saving. To invest at a fixed rate for the long term could be a low risk strategy, but it would also mean taking the slow train to corpus-building. Amruta should choose long term growth investments such as diversified large cap equity funds, which invest in large, more liquid blue-chip companies that are leaders in their sectors. Such an investment is likely to provide Amruta with a higher rate of return, so her corpus can grow at a faster rate. Since she is not investing in a lump sum, but in regular instalments over a long period, she will not be timing the markets either.

Amruta’s asset allocation in the post-retirement period should primarily generate a regular income while also shielding her from inflation during her retirement years. She needs to choose a hybrid allocation, with a high portion in income-oriented investments, and a small portion in growth-oriented investments. A fixed corpus invested into fixed income assets will lead to a lower income in her later years, after inflation. If she needs an increasing rate of income over the years into retirement, she can achieve that only by allocating at least a portion of her money into equity assets. She should periodically transfer the growth in her equity funds to debt funds that will generate her income. She can begin with an equity allocation of say 40% when she retires, and reduce it over time to about 20% by the time she is 80 years old.

-By 
Dr. Uma Shashikant,
Director, Centre for Investment
Education and Learning

Wednesday, April 13, 2011

Hitachi Home & Life Solutions (India) Ltd

Hitachi Home & Life Solutions (India) Ltd

 

Kindly click on the following link to view the Report.

 

Hitachi Home 

 

BUY

CMP 

Rs 224

Target Price

 Rs 275

Investment Period 6 Months


 

HHLS India is a subsidiary of Japan-based Hitachi Home & Life Solutions, Inc. The company operates in the air conditioner (AC) industry, which is expected to grow at a 15% CAGR over FY10–2015 due to its low penetration level of ~3% in the Indian market. We expect HHLS to witness an 18% CAGR in revenue over FY2010–12. The company's EBITDA margin is expected to improve by 300bp to 8.3% in FY2012 from 5.3% in FY2011, owing to a 3–4% increase in product prices across all categories and higher market penetration coupled with passing off of the increase in the price of its key raw material (copper). PAT will likely witness a sharp rebound from `19cr in FY2011E to `44cr in FY2012E on the back of margin improvement and increased operating leverage. Currently, at `224, the stock is trading at PE of 27.3x and 11.7x its FY2011E and FY2012E earnings, respectively. We recommend Buy on HHLS with a target price of `275, based on target E of 14x for FY2012E.

 

 

By: Angel Broking


Tuesday, April 12, 2011

Latest FMP & NFO List

"LATEST FMP LIST"


Sr. No

ONGOING FMP

OPENS

CLOSES

TENURE

MIN AMOUNT




1

 ICICI Prudential FMP Series 54 - 1 Year Plan D

05.04.2011

19.04.2011

371 Days

5000


2

ICICI Prudential FMP Series 54 - 1 Year Plan C

05.04.2011

13.04.2011

371 Days

5000


3

DWS Fixed Term Fund - Series 80

18.04.2011

25.04.2011

370 Days

5000


4

UTI Fixed Term Income Fund Series IX - II

11.04.2011

13.04.2011

369 Days

5000


5

Reliance Fixed Horizon Fund XVIII Series 8

11.04.2011

13.04.2011

181 Days

5000


 

Latest NFO List


Sr No

AMC

Scheme Name

Opens on

Closes on

Type



1

Axis Mutual Fund

Axis Dynamic Bond Fund

06.04.2011

20.04.2011

Open Ended


2

Canara Robeco Mutual Fund

Canara Robeco Yield Advantage Fund

01.04.2011

15.04.2011

Open Ended



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