Showing posts with label Reality Sector. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Reality Sector. Show all posts

Monday, March 16, 2009

[Investors Please Listen] Understanding your Home Loan Offer - Flat loan rate VS Reducing balance loan

For the twins, Gayathri and Sanjana, fate intended that everything in their lives should happen in unison. Be it their first visit from the tooth fairy or their first job, the precision in timing was astounding.

It so happened that they decided to buy their dream homes too around the same time.

The destiny that bound them together did not apparently bind their natures as Gayathri was very laid back and did not care too much for numbers, so she approached the first friendly bank that treated her like a queen, when she applied for a loan and took their best offer.

Sanjana on the other hand did her research and had offers from several banks.

Back at home Sanjana compared notes with Gayathri, who almost jumped for joy. She felt that she had landed an excellent loan bargain with minimum fuss, unlike her sister.

After all, for the same loan amount of Rs 20 lakh (Rs 2 million) with a 20-year loan tenure, Gayathri had an annualised interest rate of 12.75 per cent, while the two loans that Sanjana had shortlisted from a bunch of loan offers, were both quoted at an annualised interest rate of 13 per cent!

However, Gayathri's joy was short-lived when Sanjana explained how appearances can prove to be deceptive!

The loan offer Gayathri obtained was a flat rate loan. Banks can calculate their interest rates either at a flat rate or a reducing balance rate. Sanjana on the other hand, had shortlisted two reducing balance loan offers with different rest periods.

As her calculations revealed, the loan offer with a monthly rest turned out to be a better loan bargain than the one with an annual rest. Let us examine these two aspects stated above in detail.

At a flat rate, the interest rates are calculated keeping the outstanding amount (i.e. the amount on which interest is calculated) constant throughout the loan tenure, while in a reducing balance loan the interest rate is recalculated on a periodic basis based on the reducing outstanding loan amount.

Sanjana explained to Gayathri that at any given point in time, an X per cent flat rate is always more expensive than an X per cent annual reducing balance rate. Even in the case of a reducing balance loan a significant factor that impacts the loan cost is the time interval at which the reducing balance is recalculated, which could be monthly, daily, yearly, quarterly or half yearly.

These time periods are known as rests, which denote the regular interval at which the loan amount balance is recalculated and also refers to the periodicity of compounding. This can be possible only in the case of reducing balance loans.

The table below has the results of Sanjana's calculations that helped Gayathri calculate the real cost of her loan.

Loan type

A

B

Gayathri's Flat Rate Loan

Sanjana's Reducing Balance Loan

Annualised interest rate for a Rs 20 lakh loan with a loan tenure of 20 years

12.75%

13.00%

Type of Rest

Does not apply

Annual Rest

Monthly Rest

EMI

Rs 29,583

Rs 23,726

Rs 23,432

Total interest paid

51 lakh

36.94 lakh

36.23 lakh

Flat rate loan versus reducing balance loan

In the above table, a comparison between Column A and B reveals the difference in the impact between a flat rate loan and a reducing balance loan.

It is clear that the effective interest that Gayathri will need to pay up with her current loan offer is much higher amounting to Rs 51 lakh (Rs 5.1 million), while the loan offers Sanjana had zeroed in on for the same loan amount and tenure was much lower showing a difference of nearly Rs 20 lakh in the interest paid out!

Choosing the offer with the ideal 'rest'

To make the most of your reducing balance loan you need to ensure the periodicity of repayment closely matches the frequency of your rest.

Sanjana was quick to realize this and her calculations revealed that a yearly rest or an annual rest would mean that even when you pay EMIs on a monthly basis on your loan, the loan amount based on which you pay the interest, will be recalculated only at the end of the year (12 months).

This means you would continue to pay interest on the entire loan amount till that particular year (compounding period, when the outstanding loan amount is recalculated) ends, even when the outstanding loan amount reduces each month.

In the case of a monthly rest, the balance loan amount is recalculated and decreases every month. Hence it is to the advantage of Sanjana to take up a loan offer with the rest that more closely matches the frequency of her loan repayment.

So if you are repaying your loan amount on a monthly basis, take up the loan offer that gives you the best rate on a monthly rest.

Banks generally quote an 'annualized' interest rate, but remember that interest rates can be deceptive unless you figure out how they are defined. You can easily calculate the total amount of interest that you will pay for each offer by multiplying your EMI into the number of monthly installments and subtracting the loan amount from this figure.

You can then easily identify which loan is the most cost effective for you. Remember to account for any upfront fees (e.g. processing fee) while comparing two loans.

In summary, the key to understanding your loan offers from multiple banks is to calculate the total amount of interest and fees you would pay for each offer and zero in on the offer that gives you the least total interest outflow.


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Housing gains through Tax incentives

16 Mar 2009, 0511 hrs IST, Bakul Chugan, ET Bureau

Investment begins at home. Though the real estate sector has seen a deep correction, a house is probably one of the best investment avenues one can

seek today. Despite the global economic slump, which has hit the property prices too, real estate still remains a prized possession.
If falling interest rates and cooling off property prices are prompting some to take a leap and grab their dream houses, there is also no dearth of those who want to sell their house to overcome the recession blues. And, given the importance attached to this most prized asset class, taxman has provided tax incentives for both the buyer as well as the seller of the house.

nhblogo
Buying A House
If your dream house has now come within your reach, check out the following before taking the plunge. (a) It is always advisable to go in for a home loan. Interest paid on home loans can be deducted from your taxable income up to a maximum of Rs 1.5 lakh.
As this deduction is applicable to each individual owner of the house, this can be a double bonanza in the case of joint ownership. Thus, if the joint owners equally bear the interest burden, then each owner shall be eligible for a deduction up to Rs 1.5 lakh
However, it is important to note here that where more than one owner claims deduction, the total deduction cannot exceed the actual interest paid by the joint owners.
For example, if the annual interest liability on the house property is Rs 2 lakh and the property is jointly owned by husband and wife, then each gets a deduction of Rs 1 lakh only.
Similarly, where the annual interest liability is Rs 4 lakh, then each owner gets a deduction of Rs 1.5 lakh only, taking the total deduction to Rs 3 lakh (b) It is not only the interest repayment but even the principal re-paid can be claimed as a deduction under section 80C. The limit here is restricted to Rs 1 lakh provided the loan is borrowed from a recognised financial institution 

Owning More Than One House
It is not unusual to see people own more than one house these days, especially by those who like to invest in real estate. It has in fact become a common practice to buy and let out houses, which also adds substantially to one’s income, given a high demand for rental premises.
If the subsequent houses are also purchased through borrowed finance, the entire amount paid as interest can be claimed as deduction from taxable income. Ceiling limit of Rs 1.5 lakh is not applicable in case of subsequent properties as these are deemed to be let out.
Thus even if the same are vacant, the owner shall be required to disclose a notional rental income that the property would have derived had it been actually let out.
starhealth

Selling A House
Selling a house is rewarding - from tax perspective - provided the same is held for at least for three years before transferring the title. Holding a property for three years and more makes it a long-term capital asset and eligible for various tax incentives under the Income Tax Act.

Gains arising from the sale of a house are treated as income and are thus taxable in the hands of the seller of the property. However, if the sale proceeds are utilised for either buying or constructing another property, the same shall be exempt from taxes.
However, one needs to keep in mind the following to avail of these tax incentives. (a) If the new house is intended to be bought, the same should be purchased one year before or within two years of selling the existing property
(b) However, if the new house is to be constructed, ensure that it is done within three years of sale of the earlier property. It is not necessary to begun construction only after selling the earlier property. However, the construction must be complete within three years of sale
(c) For the interval between the sale of the existing property and buying or constructing another property, the sale proceeds need to be deposited in the ‘capital gains deposit account scheme’ with any nationalised bank. The proof of this deposit should be submitted along with the return of income to claim an exemption from capital gains tax
For those who do not wish to acquire another house from the sale proceeds of the existing property, capital gains tax can be avoided by investing the sale proceeds in the capital gains bonds issued by NHAI or REC within six months of sale of the property. The maximum investment permitted in such bonds is Rs 50 lakh, and these bonds can be redeemed only after three years from the date of investment.

Rental Accomodation
Tax incentives are available not only for the owners but also for those who have rented accommodations. In case of salaried employees who receive a house rent allowance (HRA) from their employers, the least of the following three options can be claimed as an exemption under section 10(13A): (a) HRA actually received from the employer (b) Rent paid in excess of 10% of the salary (c) 50% of the salary (metros) or 40% of the salary (non-metros).
In case of self employed individuals or those employees who do not receive an HRA, the least of the following three options can be claimed as an exemption under section 80GG: (a) Rs 2000/- per month (b) 25% of the total income (c) Rent paid in excess of 10% of total income.

HOUSEWISE
Sell a property only after holding it for at least three years
New house property should be purchased one year before or two years after sale
Construction of new house ought to be completed within three years of sale
Deposit sale proceeds in capital gains deposit account scheme till the time of new purchase
Capital gains can also be used to purchase bonds from NHAI or REC
Buyers would do well to take a loan to finance a house
Joint ownership is always advisable if you are borrowing money for house property

Friday, March 13, 2009

Real estate prices come crashing down

Rates In Some Parts Of City Drop By Half

SOME two weeks ago, Mumbai-based stock broker Ashok Samani won an auction to buy eight apartments owned by the late Harshad Mehta and his family in the posh Worli locality. Mr Samani, who put in a winning bid of Rs 32.60 crore, or Rs 26,080 per sq ft, for the apartments in the upmarket housing society, Madhuli, is pleased with the bargain. 
    "I feel it's a reasonable price. Compared to prices a year ago, it's a decent buy," he says.

 
    Apartments in buildings of Madhuli's class were selling for Rs 38,000-40,000 per sq ft around the same time last year, about a third higher than the rate at which Mr Samani struck his deal.
    Mr Samani may be satisfied with his bargain, but a number of other potential buyers don't seem to think that the time is ripe yet for the best deals.
    In early 2008, a Rs 18-crore deal was negotiated for a 2,925 sq ft house in Delhi's upscale Defence Colony area by a builder who planned to demolish the house sitting on the land and develop apartments, hoping for a return of about 30%. Builders offer freebies, agents see prices touching 2003 levels
BUT after the downturn in the real estate market, he is trying hard to wriggle out of the deal, even at the cost of losing the Rs 50 lakh he had paid as 'token money' indicating his intention to purchase the property. "A few buyers have approached me with a price of Rs 9-10 crore, but exited mid-way," said a broker who is negotiating on behalf of the property's owner.
    As in the rest of the world, the real estate market in India is trapped in a vicious cycle of plunging prices. With the bottom nowhere in sight, potential buyers do not want to try and catch a falling knife, says Pranay Vakil, chairman, Knight Frank India, a property consultancy firm. "They are expecting a further cut in prices, while developers themselves have been dropping prices, anticipating an increase in sales volumes."
    Rajneesh Chhabra, a property broker based in south Delhi, says asking rates are down 30% from their peak, but it's still almost impossible to find a buyer. "Financiers have disappeared from the market and those dependent on bank loans do not buy property in south Delhi," he says, adding that deal volumes have shrunk by more than 95% from their peaks about a year ago. With the financial year drawing to a close this month, cash-strapped real estate developers have already cut prices by an average 40% in all their upcoming projects. "I expect prices will soon come back to the 2003-04 levels, when rates were hovering between Rs 12,000 and Rs 17,000 in upmarket areas like Malabar Hill," says Mumbai Estate Agents Association president Yashwant Dalal.
    In Malabar Hill, the most expensive home address in India, prices h

ave fallen by a fourth to Rs 25,000-45,000 per sq ft, depending on the age of the building and amenities. Ten months ago, actor Vinod Khanna offered to pay Rs 1.25 lakh per sq ft for a 2,500 sq ft apartment in the ultra-luxury El Plazo housing society in the Hanging Gardens area of Malabar Hill.
    "Now the rates in that area (Hanging Gardens) are around Rs 70,000 to Rs 75,000 per sq ft. Similarly, in Pedder Road, rates are around Rs 45,000 per sq ft," Mr Dalal says.
    A London-based Indian national acquired a 3,475 sq ft property at NCPA Apartments in the Nariman Point area at Rs 97,842 per sq ft nearly six months ago, but rates there are almost half that now, says a south Mumbai property dealer.
    In central Mumbai's Worli and Lower Parel areas, rates are down to Rs 12,000-18,000 per sq ft, while in Bandra they have fallen by more than a fifth to Rs 15,000-25,000.
    Where price drops have been 50%, buyers appear to be showing interest.
    "We are quoting Rs 16,000 per sq ft for our new project in Lower Parel and the initial response has been positive," says Orbit Corporation finance director Ram Yadav. A year ago, property prices in this area were over Rs 35,000 per sq ft.
    Properties in the heart of the national capital on Prithviraj Road, Aurangzeb Road, Amrita Shergill Marg, Jor Bagh and Golf Links, which have seen deals involving industrialists such as LN Mittal, Naveen Jindal and GM Rao as well as film star Shah Rukh Khan, are now struggling to find buyers. A 11,250 sq ft home in Golf Links, which was purchased for Rs 70 crore, is now available for Rs 50 crore, but there are few takers.
    "Earlier, financiers used to buy homes. Now,
they neither have the money nor the hope that they will be able to sell it at a higher rate and so have just withdrawn from the market. End-users are rare and they only negotiate, but don't buy in the expectation that prices will fall further," says Neeraj Chopra, a Dwarka-based property broker.
    In India's technology capital Bangalore, prices have fallen by up to 25% in some areas, a recent Morgan Stanley report says. DLF, India's biggest real estate company, cut rates by about 30% at its upcoming project and the company sees prices falling further. Irshad Ahmed, president of Irshads Property Matters, says that in suburbs such as Whitefield, Outer Ring Road and Sarjapur Road hard bargaining can result in final prices that are 30% lower than the card rates.
    Property dealers and builders are also lining up an array of discounts and freebies to try and clinch deals. The Gateway project by developer Brigade in Malleshwaram, one of the oldest localities in town, is quoting at Rs 5,090 per sq ft against Rs 5,790 per sq ft last year. But there is scope for negotiations, depending on which flat is chosen and the mode of payment, says an official of the marketing team. Second-sale rates at Gateway are Rs 4,700-4,800 per sq ft, according to a property dealer.
    In Bangalore's downtown area, the Mantri group's upmarket Altius complex, which has only one apartment to a floor with a current market price of around Rs 14 crore, there aren't many units available for a second sale. A city broker says that since there are no other projects that open up to views of the city's lung space, Cubbon Park, the price will hold. But the number of people showing interest in buying has dropped, he adds.
    However, in the upmarket areas of Chennai there have been no considerable price drops. In Chennai's Arcot Road, Purasawakkam, Thiruvanmiyur and Valasaravakkam areas, rates still hover between Rs 4,700 and Rs 6,600, about the same a year ago, a dealer says, but prices have fallen by 20-30% in the suburbs.
    In Kolkata, prices have fallen from their peaks touched in mid-2008 and hover around levels seen at the beginning of the year. In areas such as Ballygunge Circular Road, Sunny Park and Queens Park rates, which were Rs 8,500-10,000 per sq ft in January 2008 jumped to Rs 13,000-14,000 in June-July before dropping to Rs 9,000-11,000.
    "Prices in the city's posh areas, including Ballygunge Circular Road and Queens Park, had surged because of limited supply, but they have been hit now. Areas like Prince Anwar Shah Road, Behala and Lake Town remain unaffected, as real estate prices in these areas never reached unrealistic levels," says Jitendra Khaitan, CEO of real estate consultancy Pioneer Property Management.
    Sumit Dabriwala, managing director of property developer Hiland Group, says highend residential properties, which were being sold at Rs 12,000-15,000 per sq ft last year, are averaging Rs 9,000-10,000 per sq ft now. "On an average, properties in upmarket areas have seen a 10-15 % price reduction in the premium category," he says. A few banks have cut home loan rates in recent weeks, sparking hope that sales will pick up in the quarter beginning April, rescuing the property market from its downward spiral. This could be a crucial period, as the impact of the ongoing financial crunch is expected to peak by then.
(With inputs from J Padmapriya in Bangalore,
    Anuradha Himatsingka in Kolkata and
    Hemamalini Venkatraman in Chennai)

Friday, January 9, 2009

Real Estate Sector ; Sector Update ; Focus: Mid-Housing Segment


Real Estate Sector

 

Focus: Mid-Housing Segment


In our recent update on the real estate sector "RBI's measure for realty sector, will it help?", we highlighted that boost to the housing sector shall be induced by lower property prices and declining home loan rates. Historically it has been observed that mortgage rates are at 250/300bps higher than the 10-year GOI bond yields. Our banking analyst expects 6% bond yield for CY09. With decline in the bond yield mortgage rates should, therefore, decline to 8-8.5%. Though PSU banks have reduced home loan rates upto Rs.2mn to 9.25%, we believe rates should fall further to boost demand for housing.  Private sector banks and HFCs have played a crucial role in home finance in the last few years. Though home loans rates have been reduced by them as well, they are still way higher than interest rates offered by PSU banks.

From developer's perspective, though lot of noise of mid-housing has been created, very few developers have mid-housing projects under offering. DLF Limited and Puravankara Projects Limited (amongst company under our coverage) is developing residential projects in the range of Rs.35-45mn. We believe, these two companies are relatively better placed to take advantage of the falling interest rates which shall in tern induce demand for home. For DLF Limited, 12.8% of the gross NAV is contributed by mid-housing segment. In case of PPL, residential accounts for 63.9% of Gross NAV.

Historically, residential rental yields in India have hovered between 5-5.5%. Over the last few years' yields declined substantially to 2-2.5% driven by higher property prices. Our channel checks suggests that mid-housing projects of DLF and PPL have been launched at attractive prices and have rental yields of 4-4.5% based on the rents prevailing in the neighboring areas.

 


Real Estate Sector ; Sector Update ; Focus: Mid-Housing Segment


Real Estate Sector

 

Focus: Mid-Housing Segment


In our recent update on the real estate sector "RBI's measure for realty sector, will it help?", we highlighted that boost to the housing sector shall be induced by lower property prices and declining home loan rates. Historically it has been observed that mortgage rates are at 250/300bps higher than the 10-year GOI bond yields. Our banking analyst expects 6% bond yield for CY09. With decline in the bond yield mortgage rates should, therefore, decline to 8-8.5%. Though PSU banks have reduced home loan rates upto Rs.2mn to 9.25%, we believe rates should fall further to boost demand for housing.  Private sector banks and HFCs have played a crucial role in home finance in the last few years. Though home loans rates have been reduced by them as well, they are still way higher than interest rates offered by PSU banks.

From developer's perspective, though lot of noise of mid-housing has been created, very few developers have mid-housing projects under offering. DLF Limited and Puravankara Projects Limited (amongst company under our coverage) is developing residential projects in the range of Rs.35-45mn. We believe, these two companies are relatively better placed to take advantage of the falling interest rates which shall in tern induce demand for home. For DLF Limited, 12.8% of the gross NAV is contributed by mid-housing segment. In case of PPL, residential accounts for 63.9% of Gross NAV.

Historically, residential rental yields in India have hovered between 5-5.5%. Over the last few years' yields declined substantially to 2-2.5% driven by higher property prices. Our channel checks suggests that mid-housing projects of DLF and PPL have been launched at attractive prices and have rental yields of 4-4.5% based on the rents prevailing in the neighboring areas.

 


Tuesday, January 6, 2009

ndian Cement Sector - Is this the first sign of a pickup in real demand?

Deutsche Bank - Equity Research

* Sharp pickup in December 2008 demand - first signs of a revival?

Our channel checks with major cement producers suggest that cement dispatches in December 2008 were +12-14% yoy and +12-14% mom. More importantly, inventory levels for plants/dealers fell sharply and are close to zero for many plants.

What is likely pre-election spending by state governments (such as for a few big infrastructure projects and the renewal of many stalled projects) helped to boost demand. Shree Cements and Grasim are our top picks, though pure plays such as ACC and Ambuja Cement could do better near term.

* Restart of several big ticket projects; could be pre-election demand

Our talks with cement marketing companies and dealers suggest that demand has been boosted by state government project restarts including (a) the sewerage line project in Punjab; (b) the national irrigation project in Haryana and Andhra Pradesh; (c) roads, bridges and other infrastructure projects in Gujarat; (d) the concretization of roads in Delhi; and (e) offtake for the Bangalore Metro in Karnataka. This seems to be pre-election demand and is likely to sustain at least until May 2009. A few dealers remarked that a lot of infrastructure projects have restarted as current commodity prices make these projects look profitable for developers.


* Operating profits for cement companies could sustain over next few quarters

A 10-15% correction of average retail prices impacted ex-factory realization by only 5-7% as government had cut down excise duties. Our earnings estimates, assuming a further 5% drop in cement realisations and virtually constant energy costs, are 14-33% below consensus except for ACC and India Cements.

* Reiterate Buy on Grasim, Hold on ACC; Shree Cement is our top mid-cap
pick.

We have used a combination of bottom of cycle PE and DCF for valuations. Our cost of equity ranging from 13.1 for ACC to 13.8 for Ambuja ( risk free rate of 8.7%and beta of 0.8 to 1) with a terminal growth of 1-2%%. Our target price implies that cement stocks are at a discount to replacement value by 17 to 66% Our preferred picks are Grasim (TP Rs1,340 +9% upside potential) and Shree cement (TP Rs560 +15%upside potential).

We maintain Hold on ACC, Ultratech, India Cement and Ambuja.

Key downside risks are a collapse in demand and the bunching up of new capacities. Upside risk stems clearly from low fuel prices and delay in new capacities.

ndian Cement Sector - Is this the first sign of a pickup in real demand?

Deutsche Bank - Equity Research

* Sharp pickup in December 2008 demand - first signs of a revival?

Our channel checks with major cement producers suggest that cement dispatches in December 2008 were +12-14% yoy and +12-14% mom. More importantly, inventory levels for plants/dealers fell sharply and are close to zero for many plants.

What is likely pre-election spending by state governments (such as for a few big infrastructure projects and the renewal of many stalled projects) helped to boost demand. Shree Cements and Grasim are our top picks, though pure plays such as ACC and Ambuja Cement could do better near term.

* Restart of several big ticket projects; could be pre-election demand

Our talks with cement marketing companies and dealers suggest that demand has been boosted by state government project restarts including (a) the sewerage line project in Punjab; (b) the national irrigation project in Haryana and Andhra Pradesh; (c) roads, bridges and other infrastructure projects in Gujarat; (d) the concretization of roads in Delhi; and (e) offtake for the Bangalore Metro in Karnataka. This seems to be pre-election demand and is likely to sustain at least until May 2009. A few dealers remarked that a lot of infrastructure projects have restarted as current commodity prices make these projects look profitable for developers.


* Operating profits for cement companies could sustain over next few quarters

A 10-15% correction of average retail prices impacted ex-factory realization by only 5-7% as government had cut down excise duties. Our earnings estimates, assuming a further 5% drop in cement realisations and virtually constant energy costs, are 14-33% below consensus except for ACC and India Cements.

* Reiterate Buy on Grasim, Hold on ACC; Shree Cement is our top mid-cap
pick.

We have used a combination of bottom of cycle PE and DCF for valuations. Our cost of equity ranging from 13.1 for ACC to 13.8 for Ambuja ( risk free rate of 8.7%and beta of 0.8 to 1) with a terminal growth of 1-2%%. Our target price implies that cement stocks are at a discount to replacement value by 17 to 66% Our preferred picks are Grasim (TP Rs1,340 +9% upside potential) and Shree cement (TP Rs560 +15%upside potential).

We maintain Hold on ACC, Ultratech, India Cement and Ambuja.

Key downside risks are a collapse in demand and the bunching up of new capacities. Upside risk stems clearly from low fuel prices and delay in new capacities.

Wednesday, December 17, 2008

Real Estate Sector Update

RBI’s measures for realty sector, will it help???

Over the last few weeks, RBI has announced several measures to improve the health of the realty sector. Starting with reduction of risk weightage for the commercial real estate loans provided by the banks, the central bank has also allowed banks to restructure loans provided to the real estate companies and treat them as standard assets. We believe RBI’s move shall provide some kind of relief for the developers over the near term. However, the most important issue, which is the demand side, still needs to be addressed. Indian Bank Association (IBA) also announced capping interest rates for housing loan up to Rs.0.5mn to 8.5% and loans between Rs.0.5-2mn to 9.25%. We believe neither the interest rate of 9.25% nor preferential treatment for loans up to Rs.20mn is enough to boost the sentiments. Further, our interaction with companies suggests that some of them are now openly admitting to negotiate on lower prices which are ~25-30% below the peak rates. However, over the near term much would depend on how swiftly the interest rates fall for any kind of pent up demand for the residential properties. In nutshell, if RBI has responded to industry demand for making available loans to the industry, it is now on the industry players to respond by cutting on the prices to induce demand.

Real Estate Sector Update

RBI’s measures for realty sector, will it help???

Over the last few weeks, RBI has announced several measures to improve the health of the realty sector. Starting with reduction of risk weightage for the commercial real estate loans provided by the banks, the central bank has also allowed banks to restructure loans provided to the real estate companies and treat them as standard assets. We believe RBI’s move shall provide some kind of relief for the developers over the near term. However, the most important issue, which is the demand side, still needs to be addressed. Indian Bank Association (IBA) also announced capping interest rates for housing loan up to Rs.0.5mn to 8.5% and loans between Rs.0.5-2mn to 9.25%. We believe neither the interest rate of 9.25% nor preferential treatment for loans up to Rs.20mn is enough to boost the sentiments. Further, our interaction with companies suggests that some of them are now openly admitting to negotiate on lower prices which are ~25-30% below the peak rates. However, over the near term much would depend on how swiftly the interest rates fall for any kind of pent up demand for the residential properties. In nutshell, if RBI has responded to industry demand for making available loans to the industry, it is now on the industry players to respond by cutting on the prices to induce demand.

Tuesday, December 16, 2008

JP Morgan Asia Pacific Research : India Property

Is private equity still bullish? Yes. Delhi, Bombay, Ahmedabad, Pune and Bangalore emerge as prime investment destinations. Negativity prevalent in the local stock market investing class, than in PE Investors.

Top Stock picks: Anantraj, DLF, Unitech, HDIL, IBREL & Ganesh Housing


Private equity has emerged as one of the most important source of capital
raising for Indian developers especially after the market sell off in Jan 08. The sector over the last few months has witnessed a surge in PE deals as capital raising avenues from equity markets have tightened considerably.

In this report we analyze close to 90 key private deals (US$7.6B total) that have happened in Indian property space over the last one year. The aim is to map out trends in investment flows and reconcile the difference in investment view between primary and secondary investors. We also cross checked our findings with various meetings with PE funds to assess their outlook for the physical market.

Cautious but not overly bearish
- While most private equity investors remain circumspect of the sector fundamentals (especially residential) , the level of bearishness is probably not as high as it is in the secondary market. Though funds remain selective of their investments, incrementally they do seem to see value at current valuations (project/entity level).

Even though deal flow has increased substantially over the last three months, the number of transactions achieving closure might slowdown considerably in 2H on increasing macro concerns. With even top tier developers in the fray for raising capital, a flight of funds to quality might play out in the near term.

Where is the money going?

Our analyses of fund deployment indicates (a) Locational preference for Metro/Tier 1 cities given perceived ongoing, sustainable economic activity in these locations (b) Asset level preference for Mid income / Office (c) Historical preference for project level investment however pace of entity level investment is now expected to pickup and (d) Preference for top tier developers given lower perceived execution risk.

How much money might be waiting on the sidelines?

US$15-20B in capital raising announcements- An end to short term liquidity concerns and India's BOP issues.

There have been significant fund raising announcements of >US20B made over the
last two years for investing in Indian real estate (source JLL, media reports). Even
thought the overall amount is huge, note that a big proportion of funds have yet been
deployed as yet.

As a word of caution, in the current market, it is not inconceivable that the draw down facility many PE players use for funding new projects could be dry up or be materially reduced as their investors can back out of their capital commitments. According to news reports, there are over 15 private equity deals across sectors that have been called off since December. Some of the key ones include Citi Venture’s investment in Akruti City and ICICI Ventures’ investment in Jaypee Infratech.

Fund Raising Announcement in US $/Millions

Pacific Star (Asia Fund Select Concept)- 2000
ICICI Ventures - 2000
IDFC Private Equity - 2000
Donald Trump Jr - 1000
Deutsche Bank (RREEF Alternate Investments) 1000
Millennium Spire 2 - 1000

Kotak India Realty Fund - overseas- 1000
Credit Suisse- 1000
Blackstone group -1000
Goldman Sachs - 1000
HDFC International Fund (HIREF International LLC.)- 800

IL&FS Investment Managers Ltd -750
Sun Appolo Real Estate Fund - 630
Triangle India Real Estate Fund (co-promoted by Old Mutual Investment Group Property Investments (OMIGPI) and ICS)- 500
Baer Capital (Dubai based PE fund)- 500
HSBC Real estate fund -500
Khaleeji Com Bank (Global Logistix Navi Mumbai Investment Company)- 430

JM Financial Infinite India -400
Trikona Capital -375
Singapore Ascendas -325
Mumbai-based Primary Real Estate Advisors -300-500
Unitech (Unitech International Real estate fund) -300
Rutley Capital Partners -300
US Based Hines -300
Societe Generale Asset Management -296
Milestone Capital Advisors (Milestone Domestic Scheme–II)- 250

Red Fort Capital - domestic fund- 250
Knight Frank -250
Yatra Capital (Netherland) - 212
Mauritius based Pragnya Fund II- 150
Yatra Capital (Euronext) -136

LIC Housing Finance -125
JM Financial Property Fund II -125
Citigroup property investors -125
Morgan Stanley -70
GE Commercial Real estate - 63
Millennium Spire I- 50

Total Proposed Investments 21,812 ($ 21.8 Bn)
Source: www.vccircle. com

JP Morgan Asia Pacific Research : India Property

Is private equity still bullish? Yes. Delhi, Bombay, Ahmedabad, Pune and Bangalore emerge as prime investment destinations. Negativity prevalent in the local stock market investing class, than in PE Investors.

Top Stock picks: Anantraj, DLF, Unitech, HDIL, IBREL & Ganesh Housing


Private equity has emerged as one of the most important source of capital
raising for Indian developers especially after the market sell off in Jan 08. The sector over the last few months has witnessed a surge in PE deals as capital raising avenues from equity markets have tightened considerably.

In this report we analyze close to 90 key private deals (US$7.6B total) that have happened in Indian property space over the last one year. The aim is to map out trends in investment flows and reconcile the difference in investment view between primary and secondary investors. We also cross checked our findings with various meetings with PE funds to assess their outlook for the physical market.

Cautious but not overly bearish
- While most private equity investors remain circumspect of the sector fundamentals (especially residential) , the level of bearishness is probably not as high as it is in the secondary market. Though funds remain selective of their investments, incrementally they do seem to see value at current valuations (project/entity level).

Even though deal flow has increased substantially over the last three months, the number of transactions achieving closure might slowdown considerably in 2H on increasing macro concerns. With even top tier developers in the fray for raising capital, a flight of funds to quality might play out in the near term.

Where is the money going?

Our analyses of fund deployment indicates (a) Locational preference for Metro/Tier 1 cities given perceived ongoing, sustainable economic activity in these locations (b) Asset level preference for Mid income / Office (c) Historical preference for project level investment however pace of entity level investment is now expected to pickup and (d) Preference for top tier developers given lower perceived execution risk.

How much money might be waiting on the sidelines?

US$15-20B in capital raising announcements- An end to short term liquidity concerns and India's BOP issues.

There have been significant fund raising announcements of >US20B made over the
last two years for investing in Indian real estate (source JLL, media reports). Even
thought the overall amount is huge, note that a big proportion of funds have yet been
deployed as yet.

As a word of caution, in the current market, it is not inconceivable that the draw down facility many PE players use for funding new projects could be dry up or be materially reduced as their investors can back out of their capital commitments. According to news reports, there are over 15 private equity deals across sectors that have been called off since December. Some of the key ones include Citi Venture’s investment in Akruti City and ICICI Ventures’ investment in Jaypee Infratech.

Fund Raising Announcement in US $/Millions

Pacific Star (Asia Fund Select Concept)- 2000
ICICI Ventures - 2000
IDFC Private Equity - 2000
Donald Trump Jr - 1000
Deutsche Bank (RREEF Alternate Investments) 1000
Millennium Spire 2 - 1000

Kotak India Realty Fund - overseas- 1000
Credit Suisse- 1000
Blackstone group -1000
Goldman Sachs - 1000
HDFC International Fund (HIREF International LLC.)- 800

IL&FS Investment Managers Ltd -750
Sun Appolo Real Estate Fund - 630
Triangle India Real Estate Fund (co-promoted by Old Mutual Investment Group Property Investments (OMIGPI) and ICS)- 500
Baer Capital (Dubai based PE fund)- 500
HSBC Real estate fund -500
Khaleeji Com Bank (Global Logistix Navi Mumbai Investment Company)- 430

JM Financial Infinite India -400
Trikona Capital -375
Singapore Ascendas -325
Mumbai-based Primary Real Estate Advisors -300-500
Unitech (Unitech International Real estate fund) -300
Rutley Capital Partners -300
US Based Hines -300
Societe Generale Asset Management -296
Milestone Capital Advisors (Milestone Domestic Scheme–II)- 250

Red Fort Capital - domestic fund- 250
Knight Frank -250
Yatra Capital (Netherland) - 212
Mauritius based Pragnya Fund II- 150
Yatra Capital (Euronext) -136

LIC Housing Finance -125
JM Financial Property Fund II -125
Citigroup property investors -125
Morgan Stanley -70
GE Commercial Real estate - 63
Millennium Spire I- 50

Total Proposed Investments 21,812 ($ 21.8 Bn)
Source: www.vccircle. com
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