Wednesday, December 22, 2010

Natural Gas Sector; The stage is set, let the flow begin

Natural Gas Sector

The stage is set, let the flow begin

The natural gas transmission sector is gearing up for a long and sustained growth trajectory as impediments/roadblocks hampering its growth in the past are cleared. Increased natural gas supply from the KG D6 basin, higher supply of RLNG at reasonable rates, infrastructure in place to ensure seamless supply, emerging clarity on transmission tariff and strong demand from user industries (power, fertilizer, CGD etc) create a conducive environment for transmission and distribution players to clock steady growth.

We initiate coverage on the Natural Gas sector- specifically transmission and distribution companies with a long term bullish view. With most of the concerns on the sector being addressed, we expect a sharp improvement in the fundamentals of companies under our coverage. We expect our natural gas universe to register revenue, EBIDTA and PAT CAGR of 17.4%, 13.3% and 11.1% over FY10-FY12E respectively. We initiate coverage on GSPL, GGCL and Petronet LNG with a BUY rating and GAIL and IGL with an ACCUMULATE rating. While we prefer the business model of GAIL and IGL, the sharp run up in its prices offer limited scope for upsides from current levels.

Company

Rating

CMP (Rs)

Target (Rs)

GAIL

Accumulate

505

565

GSPL

Buy

116

151

Indraprastha Gas

Accumulate

338

382

Gujarat Gas

Buy

398

481

Petronet LNG

Buy

128

156

 

 

Thursday, December 16, 2010

Mid-Quarter Monetary Policy Review: December 2010

Monetary Measures
It has been decided to:
  • retain the repo rate at 6.25 per cent and the reverse repo rate at 5.25 per cent under the Reserve Bank's liquidity adjustment facility (LAF);
  • retain the cash reserve ratio (CRR) at 6.0 per cent of net demand and time liabilities (NDTL) of scheduled banks.
Liquidity Measures
It has been decided to:
  • Firstly, reduce the statutory liquidity ratio (SLR) of scheduled commercial banks (SCBs) from 25 per cent of their NDTL to 24 per cent with effect from December 18, 2010;
  • Secondly, conduct open market operation (OMO) auctions for purchase of government securities for an aggregate amount of 48,000 crore in the next one month, the schedule for which is being issued separately.
The above two measures are expected to inject liquidity on an enduring basis of the order of ` 48,000 crore.

Given the permanent reduction in the SLR by one per cent of NDTL, the additional liquidity support under the LAF announced by the Reserve Bank on November 29, 2010 will now be available up to the extent of 1.0 per cent (instead of 2.0 per cent) of the NDTL of SCBs from December 18, 2010 to January 28, 2011.

Banking Sector Update; Mid-quarter review of Monetary Policy 2010-11

Banking

Mid-quarter review of Monetary Policy 2010-11

·      RBI in its mid quarter policy review announced a permanent cut of 100bps in SLR to 24% wef Dec 18, and purchase of g-secs worth Rs480bn through OMO over the next one month

·      SLR cut to result in 3bps improvement in banks' margins, while OMO to infuse liquidity into the system easing short term interest rates

·      RBI kept other key policy rate unchanged with Repo at 6.25%, Reverse repo at 5.25% and CRR at 6.0%

·      Though rate hike on pause for now, inflationary pressures from domestic demand and higher global commodity prices to continue to guide the policy actions

Tuesday, December 14, 2010

Check Shipping Corporation of India Ltd FPO Allotment status

Shipping Corporation of India FPO was open on Nov 30, 2010 and closed on Dec 03, 2010. FPO of Shipping Corporation of India was oversubscribed by 4.92 times (6.56 times in retail).

Visit Check Your Application Status Here

Japrakash Associate Fixed Deposits

Japrakash Associate Fixed Deposits
Highly Credible & High Yield Deposits

Sunday, December 12, 2010

IPO Punjab & Sind Bank December 2010

The IPO of Punjab & Sind Bank (PSB) opened for subscription on 13th December 2010 in the price band of Rs 113 to Rs 120 per share. The issue will close on 16th December 2010

 

The bank will to go public to raise Rs 470 crore by diluting 18% of government holding. After the listing, government holding in the bank will come down to 82%.

 

IPO of Punjab & Sind Bank (PSB) provides an opportunity to invest in India's one of the small sized bank with over 100 years of operations. The bank plans to establish its pan India presence by opening new branches throughout the country to increase its customer base and business. The bank has maintained capital adequacy ratio (CAR) at 13.04% with the tier-I capital at 7.9% and the tier-II capital at 5.1% as on September 2010. The proposed expansion of branch network is expected to help the bank to further improve CASA (Current And Saving Account) ratio. The bank has plans to open specialized industrial finance branches and aims at expanding its credit portfolio, by growing its corporate & retail loan segment. The bank has been able to reduce its net NPA (Non Performing Assets) ratio significantly from 8.11% in FY'05 to 0.36% in FY'10. Going forward, the bank is likely to maintain NPA ratios around this level. From a total of 17 branches on the CBS (Core Banking Solutions) platform, the bank seeks to bring around 500 branches on the CBS platform by Nov 2012 enabling it to have incremental CASA growth and profitability in future.

 

At the given price band, the issue is attractively valued and investors with long term investment horizon can subscribe the issue.  

Tuesday, December 7, 2010

A2Z Maintenance & Engineering Services Ltd - IPO Analysis

Engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) service provider A2Z Maintenance and Engineering Services' initial public offering (IPO) is set to open for subscription on December 8. The company has fixed a price band at Rs 400-410 per share and issue will close on December 10.

 

IPO of A2Z Maintenance & Engineering Services provides an opportunity to invest in growing power sector of India. It is Engineering, Procurement and Construction (EPC) company and provides services to the power transmission and distribution sector with focus on the distribution segment. It intends to further strengthen its presence across various segments in the power sector. It is diversifying EPC services to other sectors like road and telecommunications. It is significantly involved in generating power from renewable energy sources, providing Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) management services, providing Facility Management Services (FMS) and developing information technology (IT) solutions for power utilities. It has proven track record of efficient project management and execution of projects in EPC, FMS and MSW. Its business operations are geographically spread across the country and it is now also looking to explore international markets. It intends to establish strategic alliances or enter into mergers and acquisitions or joint ventures. It also focuses on exploring and participating in new investment opportunities. It is a professionally-managed and led by a team of qualified and experienced professionals. The strong order book provides revenue visibility to the company. It has delivered a strong financial performance in the past. The issue is available at higher valuations compared to peers.

 

Investors can subscribe the issue for a long term investment horizon. 

Wednesday, December 1, 2010

MOIL Ltd. : Final Subscription Figure




QIB                49.16x

NIB                143.29x

RETAIL        32.86x

EMP                0.58x

Total                56.43x
 
Total No. of Bids : Approx 13,42,376.

Tuesday, November 30, 2010

RBI Circular: Alterations/Corrections on cheques effective 1st December, 2010

RBI vide their circular dated 22nd June, 2010 had prescribed certain guidelines with respect to alterations/corrections on cheques with a view to minimize incidents of cheque frauds on account of alterations to various fields on the cheques and thus provide protection to the customers as well as  the banks.

These guidelines will now be effective from 1st December, 2010.

As per the said guidelines, 'no changes/corrections should be carried out on cheques(other than for date validation purposes, if required). For any other change whether in respect of the payee's name, courtesy amount(amount in figures) or legal amount(amount in words) etc., fresh cheque forms should be used.

In line with RBI directives under the said guidelines, as and from the Effective Date any cheque bearing such alterations or corrections will not be accepted by the Banks at the time of deposit/presentation and are likely to be dishonoured.

 

Necessary precautions may therefore be taken to avoid dishonour of such cheques.

Monday, November 29, 2010

Shipping Corporation of India FPO

Shipping Corporation of India Ltd (SCI) is the next PSU FPO offering that is going to hit the market after MOIL IPO, Coal India IPO and Power Grid FPO.

 

SCI is offering initial public offer of 84,690,730 equity shares of Rs10 each for sale on November 30. The offer will close on December 03. 

FPO of Shipping Corporation of India Ltd (SCI) provides an opportunity to invest in country's one of the largest shipping companies in terms of Indian flagged tonnage. The company is committed to maintain its leadership position and it intends to leverage upon it to enhance relationships with existing customers and to seek new customers. It has plans in place to add vessels in its existing fleets to further diversify and to garner market share. The company is well positioned to take advantage of growth in India's oil refining, power and steel industries. The company intends to improve operating efficiency, service quality and competitiveness by taking various measures. It has a strong balance sheet. At the higher end of the price band, the company is valued at discount to its peers. The issue is available at a discount to its market price as well. 

 

We recommend subscribe to the issue with long term investment horizon.

Sunday, November 28, 2010

Shipping Corp sets FPO price band at Rs 135-140/share

Shipping Corp sets FPO price band at Rs 135-140/share

 

Shipping Corporation of India (SCI), one of India's largest shipping companies in terms of Indian flagged tonnage, has set a price band at Rs 135-140 a share for its follow-on public offer (FPO) of 8,46,90,730 equity shares, which will open for subscription . The issue comprises of a fresh issue of 42,345,365 equity shares by the company and an offer for sale of 42,345,365 equity shares by the President of India, acting through the ministry of shipping, government of India. The issue comprises a net issue to the public of 84,267,276 equity shares and a reservation of up to 423,454 equity shares for subscription by eligible employees.

The lot size being 50 equity shares.

The share closed at Rs 145.40, down Rs 1.3, or 0.89% on the Bombay Stock Exchange while the price band is set at a 3.7% discount to its current market price. The company aims to raise around Rs 1,100 crore through the FPO.SCI has approximately 35% share of Indian flagged tonnage as of June 30, 2010, according to the website of Directorate General of Shipping, Government of India (DG Shipping). As of September 30, 2010, it owned a fleet of 74 vessels of 5.11 million dead weight tonnage (DWT). Its fleet includes dry bulk carriers, very large crude carrier (VLCC) tankers, crude oil tankers, product tankers, container vessels, passenger-cum-cargo vessels, phosphoric acid and chemical carriers, LPG and ammonia carriers, and offshore supply vessels.

The issue will close for subscription on December 3. Central and state governments' holding will reduce to 63.75% post issue.SBI Capital Markets Limited, ICICI Securities Limited and IDFC Capital Limited are the book running lead managers to the issue.

Tuesday, November 23, 2010

IPo : Claris Life Sciences Ltd.

The IPO of an Ahmedabad based pharmaceutical company, Claris Lifesciences will hit the market on Nov 24, 2010. It fixed price band at Rs 278 to 293. It will close on Nov 26, 2010.

 

IPO of Claris Life Sciences Ltd. provides an opportunity to invest in altogether different business model in pharmaceutical sector. It has well diversified injectable product portfolio, one of the largest in the country. On the profitability front, low competition augurs well for the margins. The company recently entered into a contract with Pfizer Inc with a view to tap the potential in United States and other regulated markets by expanding sales and distribution network. Further the company has certain technical advantages that make it highly competitive among its peers. At the higher side of the price band, the issue is available at a significant discount to traded peers.

 

We recommend subscribe to the issue with long term investment horizon.

--
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Monday, November 22, 2010

Manganese Ore India Limited (MOIL)

Manganese Ore India Limited (MOIL) is the next big PSU IPO offering that is going to hit the market after Coal India IPO and Power Grid FPO.

MOIL is offering initial public offer of 33,600,000 equity shares of Rs10 each for sale on November 26. The offer will close on November 30 for qualified institutional buyers and on December 1 for retail and non-institutional bidders.

The Price Band and Lot Size will be announced on November 23 2010.

IPO of Manganese Ore India Ltd (MOIL) provides an opportunity to invest in the India's largest manganese ore company with 'Miniratna' status. The company is committed to maintain its leadership position in the Indian manganese ore market by increasing its production capacity in line with growth in demand. It intends to add reserves and resources by undertaking exploration in and around its existing lease areas. It aims to become a vertically-integrated manganese ore producer by leveraging its midstream and downstream capabilities. In order to improve cost-efficiency through higher recovery rates and reduced production costs associated with labor, the company intends to pursue the mechanization process at its mines by investing further in new technologies. It has a strong balance sheet with zero debt and huge cash. We recommend subscribe to the issue with long term investment horizon.

--
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Saturday, November 20, 2010

Mutual Funds: Schemes witness money exiting and drop in folio numbers

Equity Fund Folios drop 3.5 lakh in Oct

 

The retail investor exodus from mutual funds continues unabated even in October as most schemes witness money exiting and drop in folio numbers. Equity funds witnessed folio numbers shrink by 3.52 lakh to 3.91 crore in October. Overall, the number of investors' account dropped by 3.62 lakh to 4.68 crore in October compared with 4.71 crore in September.

 

Even balanced funds witnessed a fall in number of folios by 38,113 to 27.58 lakh during the month. Overall, in October, equity diversified funds (including tax-saving funds) observed a net outflow of Rs 3,063 crore. Units worth Rs 9,227 crore were redeemed during the month, while new sales accounted for Rs 5,164 crore. The redemptions were mainly on account of profit booking by investors.

 

With the market indicators touching the highs of January 2008, many investors who had been stuck in the market since 2007 preferred to exit to recover the notional losses. Gold and other ETFs had an increase in investors where the account rose by 13,000 while the same increased by 24,000 in schemes of debt category.

 

 

Number of investors account

Fund category

 

 Oct-10

 

 Sep-10

 

Equity

 

3,90,87,191

 

39,439,302

 

Debt

 

43,87,480

 

43,63,761

 

Balanced

 

27,57,920

 

27,96,033

 

ETFs

 

3,17,101

 

3,04,133

 

Fund of fund

 

2,28,322

 

2,36,948

 

Source: Sebi, AMFI

 

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Friday, November 19, 2010

Reliance Communication Q2FY11 Result Update; Disappointment continues, Downgrade to REDUCE; Target: Rs135

Reliance Communication

Reco: REDUCE

CMP: Rs154

Target Price: Rs135

Disappointment continues, Downgrade to REDUCE

·      Q2FY11 EBIDTA grew by 1.7% QoQ to Rs16.6bn (below est of Rs17.6bn), PAT of Rs4.45bn led by lower interest expense

·      ARPU falls 6.2% QoQ to Rs122 purely on MOU decline as RPM remains stable. Wireless traffic growth absent

·      Cut EBIDTA and EPS estimates by 1.8% /3.5% and 14% /16.3% for FY11E /12E respectively

·      Cut target price to Rs135 (from Rs180) and rating to REDUCE from HOLD earlier. Valuations expensive at 9.2x and 8.8x EV/EBIDTA  for FY11E and FY12E respectively

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ONGOING & TENTATIVE IPO LIST

 

ONGOING IPO LIST

 

 

 

 

Issues

Open Date

Close Date

Price Band

Bid Lot

Issue Size in Rs.

RPP INFRA PROJECTS LTD-

18-Nov-10

22-Nov-10

68-75

80

48.75 Cr

MOIL LIMITED

26-Nov-10

1-Dec-10

-

-

-

 

TENTATIVE FORTH COMING IPO LIST

 

 

 

 

ISSUES NAME

Open Date

Close Date

Price Band

Bid Lot

Issue Size in Rs

 

 

 

 

 

 

A2Z MAINTENANCE AND ENGINEERING SERVICES LIMITED.

30-Nov-10

-

-

-

-

SHIPPING CORPORATION OF INDIA LTD

30-Nov-10

-

-

-

-

HINDUSTAN COPPER LTD

8-Dec-10

-

-

-

-

CLARIS LIFE SCIENCES LTD

10-Dec-10

-

-

-

-

RAVI KUMAR DISILLERIES LIMITED

15-Dec-10

-

-

-

-

GREATSHIP INDIA LIMITED

-

-

-

-

-

LAVASA CORPORATION LIMITED

-

 

 

 

 

PUNJAB & SIND BANK LTD

-

-

-

-

-

 

--
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Thursday, November 18, 2010

Power Grid FPO Listing date 26th November

Power Grid FPO Allotment Online – Listing date 26th November

Shares of Power Grid FPO can be expected to be credited to demat accounts in NSDL and CDSL by the 24th or 25th November as per market news and refunds through ECS could come in on the 25th November. Those investors who have applied through Applications Supported by Blocked Amount (ASBA) can expect the money to be debited next week.


To check the Allotment Status Click here


Visit For Latest of Infra Bonds:

IFCI Long Term Infrastructure Bonds - Series II - November 2010

MOIL Limited IPO Details


MOIL Limited.
Issue Period:                                    November 26– December 01, 2010
Issue Period (For QIB):                   November 26– November 30, 2010
Issue Period (For Retail & HNI):     November 26– December 01, 2010
Price Band:                                     Advertised @ least 2 working days prior to Issue Opening Date
Lot Size:                                           Advertised @ least 2 working days prior to Issue Opening Date
Retail & Employee Discount:           5% to the offer price adjusted at the time of allotment
 
Retail Appl Limit:        Rs.2,00,000/-
 
Issue size:                               3,36,00,000 Equity Shares of Face Value Rs.10 each through an offer for sale by the President of India, Acting through the Ministry of Steel, Govt. of India.
Employee Reservation:          6,72,000 Equity Shares
Net Issue:                               3,29,28,000 Equity Shares
QIB Book:                             1,64,64,000 Equity Shares (50% of Net issue size)
Retail Book:                          1,15,24,800 Equity Shares (35% of Net issue size)
 
HNI Book:                            49,39,200    Equity Shares (15% of Net issue size)  



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Tuesday, November 16, 2010

Result Update: Mahindra Satyam; Deccan Chronicle; McNally Bharat; Orient Paper; Tulip Telecom

Mahindra Satyam

Reco: REDUCE

CMP: Rs85

Target Price: Rs70

'Growth+ cost' pangs= Margin pressures

·      Mahindra Satyam's result continue to indicate the 'Hard toil' faced by the company as Sep'10 qtr revenues decline by ~2% QoQ, margins falling by ~380 bps QoQ to 5.9%

·      Result vindicate our negative stance on the company as it faces stiff challenges from both weaker competitive positioning in erstwhile areas of strength

·      Cut our FY11E/12E/13E margins to 8.4%/14%/14.7% (V//s 15.2%/17.1%/17% earlier) driving a 48%/24%/19% in EPS to Rs 2.7/4.9/6(V/s Rs 5.1/6.4/7.5 earlier)

·      Maintain REDUCE rating with a revised March'12 DCF based TP of Rs 70(V/s Rs 81 earlier, implying ~12.5x 1 yr forward P/E)

 

 

Deccan Chronicle

Reco: BUY

CMP: Rs129

Target Price: Rs175

Results below estimates, Catalyst exist - BUY

·      Q2FY11 headline profit declined by 17% yoy to Rs826mn, below our estimate of Rs1.05bn affected by 5.7% yoy decline in revenues

·      Shift of festivities to Q3 and high base led to ad-revenue decline of 6% yoy

·      Cut EPS estimates by 6.5% and 5.5% to Rs12.1 and Rs15 for FY11E and FY12E respectively

·      Target price cut to Rs175. Retain BUY rating on attractive valuations. Buyback upto Rs180/share and IPL franchise stake sale are near term triggers

 

 

McNally Bharat Engineering

Reco: BUY

CMP: Rs239

Target Price: Rs418

Management holds guidance, Reiterate BUY

·      Q2FY11 performance remains below estimates - revenue growth was healthy at 32% yoy to Rs4 bn, but APAT growth at 10% yoy to Rs97 mn was below expectations

·      CMT springs positive surprise on qoq basis – revenues up 46% qoq and PBT up 425% qoq. MSE failed to deliver – revenues down 10% yoy and APAT down 24% yoy

·      Despite lower Ebidta margins in H1FY11 - reiterates consolidated revenue guidance for FY11E of Rs25 bn and EBITDA margins at 10%, lending much needed comfort

·      Valuations attractive at 8.1X FY12E - Reiterate 'BUY' rating with target price of Rs418/Share

 

 

Orient Paper & Industries

Reco: BUY

CMP: Rs65

Target Price: Rs77

Cement division hurts profitability

·      Net profit at Rs5mn (-98.8% yoy) below estimates, led by poor performance of cement division. Revenues at Rs4.25bn (+8%), electricals (+26%) & Paper division (+15%)

·      Though EBITDA declined by 74%, led by 91% decline in cement EBIT, paper division surprised positively, showing signs of turnaround. Electricals margins saw dip of 658 bps to 5.2%

·      Downgrade earnings by 11.9% for FY11 (EPS of Rs6.5) and 6.8% for FY12(EPS of Rs8.8) led by lower cement realizations and margin pressure in electricals segment

·      OPIL on the verge of earnings recovery led by recent cement price hikes in its key markets and turnaround of paper division. Upgrading TP to Rs77 by rolling over to FY12 nos

 

 

Tulip Telecom

Reco: BUY

CMP: Rs178

Target Price: Rs240

In-line results, Retain BUY

·      Q2FY11 EBIDTA grew 28.5% to Rs1.6bn and APAT grew 35.3% yoy to Rs781mn, in line with estimate

·      Better than expected revenue growth of 19% to Rs5.9bn along with EBIDTA margin expansion of 200bps yoy drives profit growth

·      Net-debt rises to Rs11.6bn v/s Rs9.6bn in Q1FY11 primarily due to Qualcomm investment (Rs1.4bn)

·      Retain estimates, BUY rating and target price Rs240. Valuations at FY12E EV/EBIDTA of 4.1x & P/E 6.9x, attractive

--
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