Thursday, September 30, 2010

Microsec Financial Services Ltd IPO Allotment Status

Microsec Financial Services Ltd IPO allotment status is now available online.

Microsec Financial IPO was open on Sep 17, 2010 and closed on Sep 21, 2010. IPO was oversubscribed by 12.20 times (11.04 times in retail).

Visit IPO STATUS to check your application status. Microsec Financial Services Ltd IPO Listing date will be available soon.

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Wednesday, September 29, 2010

Tata Motors; JLR to drive the performance, Maintain ACCUMULATE; Target: Rs1,235

Tata Motors

Reco: ACCUMULATE

CMP: Rs1,080

Target Price: Rs1,235

JLR to drive the performance, Maintain ACCUMULATE

·      Strong demand outlook for FY11/FY12, driven by LCVs. JLR continues to suffer with engine shortage. No major pre buying is visible in M&HCVs. Nano's order backlog is almost over

·      Domestic business to witness cost pressures. JLR margins are sustainable but for currency fluctuations. Price hike due to emission norms is not yet decided

·      We believe that momentum in M&HCV to peak out, expect concerns for FY12 volumes to set in 3Q/4QFY11. However JLR to more than compensate for downside risk in M&HCVs

·      Upgrading FY11/FY12 EPS estimates by 10%/13% to Rs110.6/Rs137.8 due to upgrade in JLR est. Raise our SOTP based TP to Rs1,235 (up by 8%), maintain ACCUMULATE 

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Satyam Results: After 2 yrs of toil, will it bring back its lost shine?

Hyderabad: After two years, Mahindra Satyam is going to announce its first financial statements. Now, the employees, investors and customers are keeping their fingers crossed and are expecting that the company will be able to get new business and clarify about the company's financial health, reports Sreekala G and Pankaj Mishra of the Economic Times.
Will Satyam be able to bring back its lost shine?


"For me, tomorrow is the moment of truthwe will have something to show to our customers , both existing and potential," said Akshay Prakash, a 33-year-old project manager at Mahindra Satyam. Since two years, Satyam has been struggling to retain customers and its key employees. The company's SAP practice which was serving top customers like GE, GM and Nestle has been among the worst hit. The employee count from January 2009 has come down to 800 professionals from initial count of around 4,500 staff. Even the unit head Manish Mehta had quit to join Patni.

"Financials are key to business and I believe that is the last tick mark left for the new management to do. It will open floodgates and we are ready to face it. For us, numbers are just another milestone. It will give more clarity to our customers and will help rebuild confidence and attract new talent to the company,"said Bhanu Murthy Sattiraju, Vice-President of the company's digital convergence business unit.

Investors and experts hope that the new management would give a clear disclosure of quarterly results after two years. In January 2009, Satyam founder B Ramalinga Raju admitted to a fraud of inflating the company's revenues to the tune of 7,136 crore. Later, Tech Mahindra acquired a 43 percent stake in the company through a government-controlled auction.
 
 
...
By   SiliconIndia

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Tuesday, September 28, 2010

No 3rd party cheques for mutual fund investments w.e.f. Nov 15th, 2010

No third-party cheques for mutual fund investments

Next time you are investing in mutual funds, make sure you issue a cheque from your own bank account, as fund houses will soon start rejecting third-party payments.

The move is part of efforts to check fraudulent activities by mutual fund agents and distributors, some of whom have been found to be collecting cheques from investors and depositing them for investments in their own names.

After receiving several such complaints against agents and distributors, fund houses have decided not to accept third-party cheques for mutual fund investments with effect from November 15, 2010.

"In order to protect the interest of the investors, AMFI has issued best practice guidelines to all AMCs advising them not to accept third party cheques in respect of Mutual Fund Investments (with a few exceptions) effective from November 15, 2010," industry body Association of Mutual Funds in India (AMFI) said in a circular to all the fund houses.

Even in case of exceptions, the fund houses would have to ensure that the payments are coming from entities duly authorised by the actual investors.

The exceptions include payments by "parents/grand-parents /related persons on behalf of a minor for a value not exceeding Rs 50,000, payment by employer on behalf of employee under systematic investment plans (SIP) through payroll deductions and a custodian on behalf of an FII or a client."

In such cases, the fund houses would have to ensure compliance with mandatory Know-Your-Customer and other declaration norms by the investor and the person making the payments.

Such declarations would have to include details on the bank accounts from which payments are being made and the relation with the investor.

AMFI has also asked the fund houses to verify the source of funds to ensure that funds are actually coming from the drawer's account.

To further identify cases of third-party payments, the fund houses would ask investors for details of bank accounts linked to mutual fund investments and get a certificate from the bank for payments through instruments like pay orders, demand drafts and banker's cheques.

In case of payments being made through online transfer, such as RTGS, NEFT and ECS, the MF investment application would need to be accompanied by a copy of the instruction from the investor to the bank.

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Monday, September 27, 2010

Glenmark Pharma; Visibility improves but concerns prevail, Maintain Hold; Target: Rs 308

lenmark Pharma

Reco: HOLD  

CMP: Rs287

Target Price: Rs308

Visibility improves but concerns prevail, Maintain Hold

·                    Increasing approvals for niche filings and sustainable FTF pipeline with 10-12 ANDA launches annually, improve US market revenue visibility

·                    Domestic market to sustain growth momentum and outperform industry by 200bps

·                    Higher securitized receivables, huge intangibles and R&D capitalization remain key concerns 

·                    Maintain earning estimates with a Hold rating

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Bajaj Auto; Positive surprises to continue, Maintain ACCUMULATE; Target: Rs 1,630

Bajaj Auto Limited

Reco: ACCUMULATE

CMP: Rs1,446

Target Price: Rs1,630

Positive surprises to continue, Maintain ACCUMULATE

·      Demand outlook remains strong. Current scenario also indicates a good FY12. Exports can grow by 20% for FY12. A large part of FY12E exports also  hedged at Rs 47 to USD

·      Cost pressures are increasing due to higher conversion cost. Steel contracts are quarterly (QoQ prices are down in 2Q, to rise in 3Q). Margins for FY11 to be around 20%

·      We maintain our bullish stance on the industry volume for FY12. The recent est of khariff crop (+10% YoY) give further impetus to our view. Expect upgrades in volumes for FY12

·      Upgrading FY12 EPS estimates by 10% to Rs 105 for FY12 due to volume upgrades (+8%). Maintain ACCUMULATE rating with a revised TP of Rs 1630 (+13%)

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Sunday, September 26, 2010

IDFC LONG TERM INFRASTRUCTURE BONDS 2010

 IDFC LONG TERM INFRASTRUCTURE BONDS 2010

Click on Link for Details: IDFC Bonds

NBFC Fixed Deposits: DHFL - Aashray Deposits

NBFC Fixed Deposits: DHFL - Aashray Deposits: "Aashray DepositsWith DHFL Aashray deposits let your money grow while you enjoy peace of mind. DHFL brings you the opportunity that combines..."

Saturday, September 25, 2010

Indosolar Limited IPO Allotment Status

Indosolar Limited IPO allotment status is now available online.

Indosolar IPO was open on Sep 13, 2010 and closed on Sep 15, 2010. IPO was oversubscribed by 1.55 times (1.81 times in retail).

Visit http://www.linkintime.co.in/site/ipo.asp to check your application status. Indosolar Limited IPO Listing date will be available soon.

Good Luck

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Friday, September 24, 2010

IPO Note: Ashoka Buildcon; Attractive valuation 'SUBSCRIBE'

Ashoka Buildcon

Attractive valuation 'SUBSCRIBE'

·      Portfolio of 17 projects covering ~3400 lane kms makes Ashoka Buildcon, India's premier BOT developer. In house EPC arm leads to timely execution of projects

·      NHAI expects to award 18000 kms over FY11-12 - expect Ashoka with significant track record to be amongst the primary beneficiary

·      Lucrative BOT portfolio leading to re-leveraging of B/S  – 15 out of 20 had got re-leveraged. B/S can be further leveraged by Rs3.5 bn, providing dilution free growth.

·      Stock attractively valued - base case value at Rs378 provides 17% upside - Recommend SUBSCRIBE

 

 Issue Details

 

Date

24-Sep — 28-Sep

Price Band (Rs)

297-324

Offer size (Rs)

2,250mn

Offer size (shares)

6.9mn

Post issue (shares)

52.6mn

M.Cap (Rs)

17054.1mn

 

 

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Thursday, September 23, 2010

Company Update: CRISIL; Putting cash to good use - acquires Pipal Research; UNDER REVIEW

CRISIL

Reco: UNDER REVIEW

CMP: Rs6,169

Target Price: UR

Putting cash to good use - acquires Pipal Research

·      CRISIL to by Pipal Research, for a sum of USD12.75mn. The acquisition is at 1.6-3.2x EV/ Sales (assuming 50-100%  stake), which is lower than 2.2x it gave for Irevna in 2005

·      Looking at CRISIL's history of acquiring smaller companies and then quick scale up it will be able to scale up Pipal's business significantly leveraging their existing capabilities

·      The acquisition of Pipal alongwith recent buy back program, we expect CRISIL's ROEs to improve, which till date were not optimized due to high cash on book

·      At CMP of Rs6,169, the stock trades at 26.6x CY10E EPS of Rs232 and 21.7x CY11E EPS of Rs284. We will review our numbers and rating after having more details on Pipal

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Wednesday, September 22, 2010

India ranked third among most powerful nations

Washington: India is listed as the third most powerful country in the world after the U.S. and China and the fourth most powerful bloc after the U.S., China and the European Union in a new official U.S. report.

The new global power lineup for 2010 also predicted that New Delhi's clout in the world will further rise by 2025, according to "Global Governance 2025" jointly issued by the National Intelligence Council (NIC) of the US and the European Union's Institute for Security Studies (EUISS).
India ranked third among most powerful nations


Using the insights of a host of experts from Brazil, Russia, India and China, among others, and fictionalised scenarios, the report illustrates what could happen over the next 25 years in terms of global governance.

In 2010, the U.S. tops the list of powerful countries/regions, accounting for nearly 22 percent of the global power.

The U.S. is followed by China with European Union at 16 percent and India at eight percent. India is followed by Japan, Russia and Brazil with less than five percent each.

According to this international futures model, by 2025 the power of the U.S., EU, Japan and Russia will decline while that of China, India and Brazil will increase, even though there will be no change in this listing.

By 2025, the U.S. will still be the most powerful country of the world, but it will have a little over 18 percent of the global power.

The U.S. will be closely followed by China with 16 percent, European Union with 14 percent and India with 10 per cent.

"The growing number of issues on the international agenda, and their complexity, is outpacing the ability of international organizations and national governments to cope," the report warns.

This critical turning point includes issues of climate change, ethnic and regional conflicts, new technology, and the managing of natural resources.

The report also highlights the challenges proponents of effective global governance face.

On one hand, rapid globalization, economic and otherwise, has led to an intertwining of domestic politics and international issues and fueled the need for more cooperation and more effective leadership.

But on the other hand, an increasingly multipolar world, often dominated by non-state actors, have put a snag in progress toward effectual global governance, it said.

Source:
SiliconIndia

Reduce rate of interest in JP Associates Ltd

JP Associates Ltd has started accepting Fixed deposits from all category (i.e. general public, shareholders etc) from today & also they reduce Rate of Interest as follows:

 

Period (Yr)

Minimum Amount

ROI (%)

1

20,000

10.50

2

11.00

3

11.50

 


For Further Inqueries,

Call: 0-991-00-9312 | Email: info@safeinvestindia.com

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MIP: Hybrid Debt Fund

Hybrid funds are those that combine two asset classes, debt and equity. There are three types of funds that fall within it:

  • debt oriented,
  • equity oriented and
  • monthly income plans (MIPs).

A decade ago, that was not the case. In fact, the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) has been dissuading fund houses from using the term MIP. Most recent launches bear witness to it. Peerless Income Plus and Axis Income Saver did not employ the terms 'monthly' or 'income' when naming their schemes. Bharti AXA Mutual Fund renamed its MIP as Regular Returns Fund before obtaining final approval.

 

The performance of these schemes depends on how the equity market performs.

 

In the meltdown of 2008, the category shed 3.42 per cent. The worst performer (ING Optimix Income Growth MMFoF 30% Equity Option A) shed (-)15.50 per cent while the best (Birla Sun Life MIP II Savings 5) delivered 28.55 per cent. The latter benefited from aggressive maturity bets on the debt side with no equity exposure.

 

Many MIP fund managers brought down their equity exposure by February 2009. Just four funds (out of 51) had an exposure above 20 per cent while five brought down the equity exposure to almost nothing. Once the market began reviving in March 2009, equity exposure began to rise. By December 2009, 17 (out of 54) had increased equity exposure to over 20 per cent. Most funds were invested close to their upper limit of equity. This helped the category deliver 14.88 per cent, marginally higher than the returns delivered in 2007, but second highest since 2000.

 

On the debt side of the portfolio, the risk depends on the fund manager's call on interest rate. MIPs invest in all kinds of debt paper. Some of them take aggressive maturity bets while some stay conservative.Recently, the average maturity of the debt portfolio of this category of funds came down to 1.09 years (March 2010) from 3.14 years (June 2009), but has now increased slightly to 1.67 years (May 2010).

 

However, the individual differences are stark. Over the past five years, the category has delivered an average annualised return of 9.32 per cent. The best performer (UTI Mahila Unit Scheme) delivered 18 per cent

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Friday, September 17, 2010

IPO: EROS INTERNATIONAL MEDIA LTD

Eros International Media (EIML), promoted by Eros Worldwide, a 100% subsidiary of Eros plc, purchases, sells, assigns film distribution rights for Hindi and regional language and also undertakes co-production. It exclusively sources all Indian film content for the Eros Group and exploits such content across formats within India, Nepal and Bhutan.

 

The company entering the capital market to raise Rs 350 crore by issuing 18551898 shares with a price band of Rs 158-175.

 

The issue opens on September 17 and closes on September 21.

 

At Rs 175, the higher price of the band, the issue is available at a P/E of 15.2x FY10 earnings. 

 

Please follow the below link for further readings:

 

http://www.rrfinance.com/pdf_files/eros.pdf

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Thursday, September 16, 2010

RBI hikes repo by 25 bps; reverse repo by 50 bps

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI), in its credit policy announcement today, hiked repo by 25 basis points (bps) and the reverse repo by 50 basis points (bps). The repo now stands at 6% while reverse repo stands at 5%.

A poll conducted earlier in the day had indicated that most people had expected a 25 bps hike on the reverse repo rate. In fact, 60% expected a 25 bps hike in repo rate and 40% expected the rate to remain unchanged. The 50 bps reverse repo hike may have come in as a surprise. 90% of experts polled had expected a 25 bps hike in the reverse repo rate and 10% expected RBI to keep the rate unchanged.

The poll suggested that the market was most keenly watching out for the language of the RBI. "A lot of people expect that whether or not the RBI signals a rate hike, it will start talking a little more neutral as compared to the hawkish view it had in the July policy," As soon as the announcement was made, the benchmark indices remained largely unchanged.

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Wednesday, September 15, 2010

NEWS:-"That You Must Know"

EPFOs hidden treasure to fetch you 9.5% return
The government brought cheer to five crore employees in the organised sector ahead of the festive season by announcing a one-percentage point increase in the interest rate on provident fund savings for 2010-11, along with a host of reform measures to make the scheme more subscriber-friendly. The Centre will notify the 9.5% rate after consultations with the finance ministry. The EPF rate has been languishing at 8.5% for the last five years. The higher rate of 9.5% became possible after the Employees Provident Fund Organisation (EPFO) discovered a hidden surplus of 1,731.57 crore in its accounts. The EPFOs earnings for 2010-11 can only support an 8.5% payout. With its corpus of 1,70,000 crore, a 1% hike in the rate would need about 1,700 crore. A visibly-pleased labour minister Mallikarjun Kharge revealed the decision to hike the rate on Wednesday after a meeting of the EPFO board. The Manmohan Singh government had last paid 9.5% interest on PF balances in 2004-05.


Curb on short selling: EU proposes tougher rules for financial markets
The European Unions executive on Wednesday proposed tougher curbs on financial market practices seen to have contributed to the global market crisis that drove the worlds largest economies into recession. EU services commissioner Michel Barnier said on Wednesday he wants to rein in the market for derivatives financial instruments based on the value of other assets and insisted regulators should have powers to restrict, and even ban,short selling. Barnier said the measures on the derivatives market would kick in in 2012 and bring Europe in line with restrictions the US Congress passed over the summer to get a better grip on banks and Wall Street. We have to limit the risks of this hyper speculation by shedding light,by forcing people to be transparent. We have to know on all of these markets, with the Americans and the other regions, who is doing what, Barnier said. No player, no market, no territory, must remain outside this supervision, he said.


Chinese economy could grow by 10% in 2010

China's economy could grow by 10% this year while the inflation would be around three percent, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Wednesday. Ma Jiantang, director of National Bureau of Statistics,made the remarks at the ongoing World Economic Forum Annual Meeting of the New Champions in the port city of Tianjin, the China Daily reported. Ma said the country should put more efforts to the economic restructuring and transformation of the nation's economic growth model. He said the ministry will create a scientific system of statistical indicators to guide governments at all levels, industries and companies to transform development pattern. The official said statistical data should "truly and accurately" reflect the process of the transformation. He added it was "very hard" for official data to reflect individual feelings on prices and each person's income.

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Ashok Leyland; No room for negative surprises, Maintain HOLD; Target: Rs 76

Ashok Leyland Ltd.

Reco: HOLD

CMP: Rs77

Target Price: Rs76

No room for negative surprises, Maintain HOLD

·      Maintain volumes guidance of 90,000 units for FY11. Export demand picking up. Margins guidance continues to be subdued at 10% to 11% for FY11

·      October 2010 can record strong wholesale billings as company can sell old emission vehicles if there is an excise clearance before 1st October

·      Upgrade FY11 EPS by 1.2% due to change in volume mix and FY12 EPS by 8.6% due to higher production assumption at Uttaranchal and hence lower tax rate

·      Maintain HOLD rating. M&HCV demand momentum to peak out, expect concerns with volume growth for FY12 from 3Q/4Q FY11. Valuations not reflecting the same 

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2011 - 2014 will be the big years for infrastructure : ICICI Prudential AMC

Sankaran Naren, CIO - Equity, ICICI Prudential AMC interview with Wealth Forum
Sankaran Naren believes that over the next three years, the infrastructure theme should outperform the market and the consumption theme. Just as there were drivers put in place in 2008 that powered the consumption theme over 2009 and 2010, Naren sees the drivers for the infra theme falling in place now - which should result in 2011 to 2014 being the infra years……

WF: The infrastructure theme has relatively underperformed the consumption theme. Why do you believe that this trend is now going to change, in favour of infrastructure?
Naren: Lets go back a couple of years. What happened in 2008 was that, once the financial crisis happened, our government came up with a strong stimulus package to boost demand. One is they cut interest, second is they cut excise duties and other taxes and third is the pay commission which put a lot of money in the hands of government employees and fourth is the big farm loan waiver program. Now, the combination of these four actions resulted in a consumption boom from 2008 until now.
As a result of this consumption boom, stocks and sectors that played this theme have benefited very well - especially the discretionary spending oriented sectors - auto, white goods, media, entertainment, airlines etc.
The other impact of the consumption boom is that we have high food inflation, high manufacturing inflation and high trade and current account deficits. Inflation has to be tacked. You need additional manufacturing capacity, which means that you have to encourage investment.
We can see that the Government is gradually shifting gears from promoting consumption to promoting investments. We saw in June that the Government raised fuel prices - at a time when inflationary worries were already there. Our belief is that higher interest rates and higher inflation can start impacting consumption growth, going forward. There will be a tax on consumption - whether by way of a move to market determined prices of fuels or impact of GST etc - as the Government's focus will move now from accelerating consumption to accelerating investments - now that the recovery is well and truly underway. This year, the Government had a windfall in terms of license fees from 3G. This may not happen every year - and revenue considerations will become more important.
We believe we will see a significant shift in Government's thrust towards infrastructure and away from consumption around the time of the next budget - Feb 2011. We believe earnings of infrastructure companies will show significant increases in the 2011 to 2014 period. And therefore, in our view, the time between now and the next Budget should be used by investors to buy into infrastructure funds, with a view to participate in the potential upside over the next 3 years. We should see infra stocks deliver over 2011-14, the kind of performance we've seen in consumption stocks over the last 18 months.
Lets look at the different sectors within the infra theme. Capital goods at a sector level should do very well. Telecom - which is infra - but where demand is consumption led - is coming off a bad phase and has begun rallying from its recent lows. We took a call to buy into the telecom weakness - and that's paying off well now. Likewise, we believe the next 12-18 months will see weakness in cement due to oversupply. We will look at an opportune time to buy into cement weakness sometime in the next 12 months - as we believe the long term prospects are undoubtedly bright. Banks will also benefit from rising infrastructure spending. Then, if you take metals - ferrous metals have done very well. Non ferrous metals have struggled - but that's due to specific issues rather than the sector being in trouble.
Coming to construction - the sector tends to bottom out when interest rates peak. We believe interest rates will peak out over the next 6 months - and that may be a good time to go overweight in construction sector.
The final piece is oil & gas - this sector has underperformed, but we believe it offers among the best value in the market from a future prospects point of view.
WF: In the engineering and capital goods space, some analysts worry about diminishing capital efficiency and falling ROCEs - even as order books continue to rise. Is profitability a key issue in your view?
Naren: In my opinion the bulk of these kinds of mistakes were made by the companies in the boom year of 2007. Unfortunately, what happened in this sector is that what you bid in 2007, you executed in 2009. Today, companies are a lot more conscious about how they bid. In the construction space for example, companies are a lot more cautious about the traffic assumptions they are now building into their models.
The aspect I would worry about in this context is the power utilities space. With so many large corporate houses keen to enter this space, there are bound to be some mis-allocations of capital in this space. As a fund house, we are cautious on the unregulated power utilities space. We are staying invested in the regulated power utilities space - although there has been recent underperformance - as we believe in the value story there.
WF: The other area of debate within the infra space is whether to own infrastructure owners or infrastructure builders. The former has the attraction of annuity cash flows kicking in over the long term, while the latter has the attraction of reporting sharper earnings growth in the near term. What do you prefer ?
Naren: My belief is that as an equity fund manager in a mutual fund, I don't have a sufficiently long mandate in terms of time to get value out of an infrastructure owner. The private equity segment is perhaps better suited to take those kind of long term calls. As an equity fund manager, I am happier looking at infrastructure builders, where we are betting on project execution - and not the annuity cashflows from the project over then next 10-20 years.
WF: What are the key risks that you would be watchful about in the infra theme over the next 12 months?
Naren: The one common factor in all infrastructure stocks is their rather large interest cost. They are big payers of interest and are therefore vulnerable to interest rate shocks. If interest rates go up sharply from here - either on account of persisting inflation or liquidity issues etc - this sector will be impacted. So, that's the one key issue we should be watchful about.

Monday, September 13, 2010

# Bank Nifty should continue its move towards 12500-13000


  • ICICI bank past underperformance, would catch up fast, strong supports at 950-1000, target 1250+
  • Sensex a bullish breakaway gap, hints at pending upsides.
  • Bank Nifty should continue its move towards 12500-13000
  • Nifty odds tilted towards the long term trend, medium term risk profile changes from a sell on rise to a buy on decline.
  • Stocks with positive short term bias

§                 LIC Hsg, SBI, ICICI, IDBI, GATI, Rel Com, Bharti, Suzlon, Maruti

  • Stocks with negative short term bias

§                 M&M, Sesa Goa

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Very Excellent Interview of Mr. Nilesh Shah, chief investment officer at ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company.


Nilesh Shah is often the first port of call for any foreign institutional investor keen on investing in India. A cost and chartered accountant, Mr Shah possesses an uncanny understanding of bonds along with an intuitive ability to gauge value even within the equity market. Nilesh is part of a rare breed of fund managers who have participated in the retail fixed-income market from its infancy to its present state. Mr Shah is the deputy managing director and chief investment officer at ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company.

Why should I invest in India?
Investing in India makes sense as it will create long term wealth for you. A case in point is Maruti Suzuki's stock performance since the time of its listing compared with that of its Japanese parent Suzuki. Maruti got listed in 2003 and has outperformed Suzuki by over 11 times. Maruti has been the biggest value creator for Suzuki. You should invest in India only if you want to make serious money.
What about India's fiscal deficit? Isn't that a cause for worry?
The government has a clear road map for containing the deficit and has committed to bring it down to 4.1% of GDP over the next two years. Moreover, India's GDP is also understated as there exists a parallel economy, which is slowly getting integrated into its main counterpart.
I am also worried about trade and current account deficit (CAD).
Our trade deficit does not take into account two of the largest exports, namely software services to markets like the US and the movement of labour to regions such as the Middle East. CAD is likely to be around $30-35 billion for FY11. The deficit turns to a surplus if you remove gold imports worth $25 billion and the expense incurred on overseas education which Indians are lavishing on their children. Even that should be treated as investment for the future rather than consumption.
I am worried about your low rating with global rating agencies.
For 5,000 years since the days of the Indus Valley civilisation, India has not defaulted on its overseas debt obligations. Will you trust this longest track record of no default or the rating agencies?
I am worried about India's record on corporate governance.
While our physical infrastructure is not at par with global standards, our financial regulation is equal if not better than world standards. Our regulatory watchdogs are at par with the best in the world and are always evolving to ensure that India's governance standards match the best globally. We have had our share of the Enrons and the WorldComs, but they are easy to detect and avoid.
How will India's economy progress without a world-class infrastructure?
We lack adequate infrastructure. But things are progressing apace. Three decades ago, we had to wait for more than 10 years to get a telephone at home. Today, the situation is completely reversed — mobile connections are available on demand, we have the cheapest call rates anywhere in the world and our telecom networks are at par with global standards. Today, we have power cuts in most part of India. But we are building our generation capacity and, hopefully like telecom, electricity production will expand and cut into shortages. India did not develop its infrastructure as we were short of capital. Now if you provide the money, infrastructure will get built.
I am worried about rising corruption here.
Show me one country where it is not present in various degrees. India is fighting and reducing corruption by increasing education and awareness. The Right to Information Act is one giant leap in this direction. Also, remember that there are very few places in the world, where hotel staff will put themselves in front of bullet ahead of their guests or the police, armed with only bamboo sticks, will capture a fully armed terrorist alive.
I am worried about the bureaucracy.
Every coin has two sides. Look at the Reserve Bank of India. No other central bank in the world is managing conflicting objectives like growth, inflation, financial sector stability, interest rates, currency, government's borrowing programme, etc, like the RBI.
India has created $1.2 trillion-plus economy with all these limitations and more. Imagine what can be created as these hurdles are gradually getting reduced.
I am worried about valuations. Isn't India expensive?
Good things don't come cheap. We had a bargain sale between the third quarter of 2008 and the second quarter of 2009. Bad luck, but you missed out! India is expensive relative to peers for the current year to March, but not when compared with earnings expected in FY12. Higher return on equity and better earnings growth will always keep India at the higher end of valuation among peers.
How does India compare with China?
Autocracy, undervalued currency and large inflows of foreign capital have helped China grow much faster and far ahead of India. But some parts of India, like Gujarat, are growing at comparable rates for many years without support from above factors. India and China are complimentary to each other in your portfolio.
India is so good, why do I always lose money on India?
Growth is not a substitute for valuation. You lose money on India because you try to trade on stocks rather than be an investor in the growth story. India is not an exception to the rule of economics. If you become a long-term investor, you will have to work really hard to lose money.

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Friday, September 10, 2010

IPO: Indosolar, Issue Opens – 13 Sept 2010 Issue Closes – 15 Sept 2010, Recommendation: SUBSCRIBE

Indosolar Ltd entering the capital market with a public issue of Rs 357 crore. The IPO price band has been fixed between Rs 29 and Rs 32 per share of face value Rs 10 each. The issue opens on September 13 and closes on September 15.

 

Indosolar Ltd. is engaged in the manufacturing of solar photo-voltaic (SPV) cells from crystalline silicon wafers used for converting sunlight directly into electricity.

 

Indosolar is looking at expanding its manufacturing capacity further. Expansion through Line 2 with an annual capacity of 80 MW is under progress and is expected to be commissioned by March 2010. The company plans to raise funds through its IPO mainly to fund the expansion of Line 3 which would have an annual manufacturing capacity of 100 MW.

 

Please follow the below link for further readings:  Indosolar

 

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Thursday, September 9, 2010

Fixed Deposit Rating Watch

Fixed Deposit Rating Watch

S.No.

Company

Rating

1

Alembic Ltd.

P1+ by CRISIL

2

Shriram Transport Finance

TAA

3

Mahindra Finance Ltd.

FAA+ 

4

Srei Infra. Fin. Ltd. 

AA

S.No.

GOVT. COMPANIES / PSUs /SUBSIDIARIES

Rating

1

Canfin Homes Ltd.(Ind/Trust)

MAA

2

Canfin Homes Ltd.

MAA

3

Hudco (Ind/Trust)

FAAA

4

Icici Home Finance

MAAA

5

Ntpc

FAAA

6

National Housing Bank 

FAAA

7

Pnb Housing 

FAAA

8

Sidbi ( Individuals & Huf )

AAA 

S.No.

NBFC /HOUSING FINANCE COMPANIES

RATINGS

1

Birla Home Finance Ltd. 

MA

2

Dewan Housing Finance

CARE (AA+) IND 'AA'(FD)

3

Exim Bank

FAAA

4

Exim Bank- Above 1crore

FAAA

5

First Leasing 

AA

6

Hdfc (Ind& Huf)

FAAA

7

Gruh Finance (Ind. Deposit)

FAA+ by CRISIL & MAA+ by ICRA

8

Sundaram Home Finance

MAA+


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