INVESTORS PLEASE LISTEN !: February 2010

Thursday, February 25, 2010

Watch out NMDC FPO Coming Soon

Upcoming FPO - NMDC Limited

NMDC Ltd is coming out with a a follow-on public offer (FPO) of 332,243,200 Equity Shares of Rs.1 for cash, at a premium to be decided through a 100% Book built issue. NMDC Ltd is a fully Government of India owned public enterprise. NMDC is under the administrative control of the Ministry of Steel, Government of India. NMDC involved in the exploration of wide range of minerals including iron ore, copper, rock phosphate, lime stone, dolomite, gypsum, bentonite, magnesite, diamond, tin, tungsten, graphite, beach sands etc.

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Nifty around 200 DEMA suggests weakness will continue

Market Technicals

· Historical price action around 200 DEMA suggests weakness will continue.

· Crucial weekly close ahead for global indices.

· S&P flirts with key trend resistance, bearish H&S remains in place.

· Nifty slower retracement continues into the 13th day.

· FTSE and Hang Seng remain copybook bearish H&S.

Nifty:breakout is anticipated on upside 4930 and Resistance 4805

Dull day

After an extremely dull session, finally Nifty ended the day on a flat note with a gain of just one point. The charts say that the triangular consolidation of Nifty is yet to see a breakout on either side. However as the triangle is part of an inverse H & S, breakout is anticipated on upside. 4930 and 4805 are the respective resistance and support levels for the coming session.

Trading Ideas

Remain stock specific from current levels.
Mid term trading ideas which we like are Spice Jet (Target Rs68),Siemens (Target Rs720), Voltas (Target Rs174) and Unitech (Target Rs76). Traders maintain stop loss accordingly.

Investment Ideas

Godawari Power & Ispat (GPIL):CMP @ Rs189 (Target Rs261)

Indian railway budget 2010-11; High on vision, low on provision

Indian railway budget 2010-11

High on vision, low on provision

Rail Budget 2010-11, presented by Union Railway Minister Ms Mamta Banerjee, through the 2020 vision, laid the roadmap for long term plans of railways. The railways has set an ambitious target of adding 25,000 km new lines over the next 10 years (2500 km / year as against last 5 years average of mere 219 km / year). While higher reliance on Public Private Partnership (PPP) model should help in achieving these optimistic targets, low provisions for funding and slow execution remain key concerns.

Broadly, it remains positive for the industry with no increase in freight rates. Industries like cement, power, metals to gain, since industry was worried about increase in freight rates. Rail companies like Kalindee, Hind Rectifiers, Texmaco, BEML, Kernex etc should benefit from 2020 vision, target of 1000 km new track in next year, gearing up execution on Dedicated Rail Freight Corridor (DRFC) in longer run, while opportunities in near term remained subdued due to lack of clear guidelines and execution capabilities. Gross traffic receipt is estimated to increase by 4.3% driven by 6.1% growth in freight loading volumes and 8.6% growth in passenger earnings. Despite increase in gross earnings, net margins are likely to remain stable at ~8% with insignificant increase in internal accruals. As a result, dependency on external sources of funding is likely to increase.

Gujarat Industrial Power stock undervalued at 1.1XFY11 BV

Gujarat Industrial Power stock undervalued, trading at 1.1 XFY11 Book Value

Mphasis Jan'10 Results: Much feared pricing cut happens, forex gains lead to better profits

UBI Issue:8.78tms subscbd till 12pm

Please find the United Bank of India - Public Issue -- subscription numbers @ 12.00PM on 25th February, 2010 (Including ASBA Application as on 24 Feb, 2010)

Category	Subscriptions ( No of Times )
EMP	0.20
HNI	1.54
QIB	14.46
RETAIL	1.33

Total	8.78

No Applications – 31106

Wednesday, February 24, 2010

Nifty: downside 4805 is a good support

Range bound session

After trading in a very narrow range, finally Nifty ended the day almost on a flattish note. Both inverse H & S and symmetric triangle are still on the cards and yet to see a breakout. Hourly momentum cycle is virtually flat and signal-less and just resting on the neutral line. On downside 4805 is a good support and on upside 4912 is a good resistance to watch out for.

Trading Ideas

Remain stock specific from current levels.
Mid term trading ideas which we like are Reliance (Target Rs1,040), Siemens (Target Rs720), Voltas (Target Rs174)and Unitech (Target Rs76). Traders maintain stop loss accordingly.

Investment Ideas

Jaiprakash Associates (JPA):CMP @ Rs142 (Target Rs185)

Tuesday, February 23, 2010

Shree Cement targets to earn Rs 460cr by selling power next year

Siemens (Target Rs720), JP Associates (Target Rs151)

Trading Ideas

Positive bias for mid term trading are in stocks like Siemens (Target Rs720), JP Associates (Target Rs151), Punj Lloyd (Target Rs206) & Spice Jet (Target Rs68). Traders maintain stop loss accordingly.

Investment Ideas

JSW Steel: CMP @ Rs1,051 (Target Rs1,521)

Nifty unable to go past 4930.

Market Tech

· US and Europe bearish H&S look clearer each passing day.

· FTSE has a 'bearish outside day'.

· Nifty unable to go past 4930.

· Nifty trend channels.

· Nifty Volumes confirm 'bearish inside day break'.

· DXY continues to trade above 80.

Monday, February 22, 2010

Nifty unable to go past 4930

Key take aways

· US, Europe near 61.8% retracement, Asia underperforms manages only 38%.

· Nifty unable to go past 4930, Exhaustion Gap on Nifty Futures.

· BSE 500 also shows similar picture.

· Nifty slower retracement, lower volumes.

· DXY continues to trade above 80.

Sterlite Technology receives a Rs800 crore contract from Power Finance Corp

Nifty:strong chances of sliding back to 4675.

After a healthy opening market just saw a steady tanking, as a result of which we ended the day on a flat note. Today's move was a sign of exhaustion, as the bulls were not able to keep up to its morning gains resulting into a dismal close. Further, Nifty was not able to clear the barrier of 20-daily simple moving average for third consecutive day, which is a sign of weakness. Additionally, the hourly momentum cycle has turned bearish, which means that in the coming session Nifty may breach the support of 4805, resulting into a lower top lower bottom formation. In this scenario, Nifty has strong chances of sliding back towards the previous swing low of 4675.

Positive bias for mid term trading are in stocks like JP Associates (Target Rs151), Punj Lloyd (Target Rs206), SREI Infra (Target Rs75) & Spice Jet (Target Rs68). Traders maintain stop loss accordingly.

Investment Ideas

Essel Propack Ltd (EPL): CMP @ Rs43

Bhushan Steel Result in line, Tgt:1,843

Bhushan Steel

Result in line

ACCUMULATE

CMP: Rs 1,621 Target Price: Rs 1,843

Bhushan Steel Ltd. (BSL) reported 3QFY10 results, which were in line with our estimates. Net sales stood at Rs14.3bn (yoy up 42.6%, qoq up 10.1%), EBITDA stood at Rs3.9bn (yoy up 149%, qoq up 13.9%) and Adj PAT stood at Rs2.1bn (yoy up 900.1%, qoq up 9.7%). During the quarter, EBITDA margins increased by 1,168bps on yoy basis and by 91bps on sequential basis to 27.3%, due to redcution in raw material costs by 1,329bps on yoy basis and 166bps on sequential basis. The company's backward integration plans to set up 2.2mtpa integrated steel plant at Meramandali, Orissa are progressing as per schedule and its Hot Strip Mill (HSM) is expected to commence operations by Mar-Apr '10. We believe that post commissioning of its HSM and other facilities, the company will be able to reduce cost of production significantly. This will enable BSL to replace costly imported HRC with the inhouse manufactured HRC. We believe, this could lead to cost savings of around USD130/t of steel. However, the majority of the savings will accrue only in FY11, post fully ramping up of all the plants.

BSL also has phase III expansion plan to increase the capacities of HSM and other facilities to 5mtpa, which we expect to commence operations only in FY13. As on 31st Dec '09, the company has net begt of Rs110bn. At the CMP of Rs1,621, the stock is trading at 6.6x FY11E EPS of Rs244.4 and at 5.5x FY12E EPS of Rs297.2. On EV/EBITDA basis, the stock is trading at 6.3x FY11E EV/EBITDA and at 5.7x FY12E EV/EBITDA; while on P/B basis, the stock is trading at 1.6x FY11E book value and at 1.3x FY12E book value. Though we remain directionally positive on the growth of the company; however, we believe that the CMP largely captures in the benefits of backward integration. Moreover our target price of Rs1,843 also offers reasonable returns from the current levels; hence, we are downgrading the stock from BUY to ACCUMULATE, with revised target price of Rs1,843 (6x FY12E EV/EBITDA) (Previous target – Rs1,615).

Sunday, February 21, 2010

Rel Media makes a counter bid for Fame at Rs 83.80

Rel Media makes a counter bid for Fame at Rs 83.80

Inverse Head-and-shoulders under formation, neckline is packed at 4930

On w-o-w basis, Nifty closed with gain of 20 odd points, thus managing to hold on to its week positive streak. Currently, Nifty is forming an inverse Head-and-shoulders pattern, whose neckline is packed at 4930. On the breach of the neckline Nifty can rally up to 5000-5050 levels. However, if the low of 4675 got violated then the pattern will get negate and extensions on downside will continue.

Nifty unable to go past 4930, ‘Inside Day’ breaks on downside.

Pull backs seem complete around the 61.8% mark globally.

· DXY whipsaws 81 but manages a positive weekly close.

· Nifty unable to go past 4930, 'Inside Day' breaks on downside.

· Nifty Intraday picture shows some chances of final upsides.

· Nifty Volumes confirm 'bearish inside day break'.

· Nifty slower retracement, lower volumes.

Saturday, February 20, 2010

UBI IPO Rs.60-65, on Feb23-25

United Bank of India IPO details:-

BRLM : SBI Capital Markets/Edelweiss Capital Limited/Enam Securities P. Ltd

Issue Opens : February 23, 2010

Issue Closes : February 25, 2010

Price Band : Rs 60 - Rs 66 per Equity Share

Bid Lot Size : 100 Equity Shares into Multipiles of 100 Equity Shares

Retail Discount : 5% (Investor has to pay full amount on application. Discount will be adjusted on Basis of Allotment)

Registrar : Link Intime India Private Limited

Total Issue Size : 5,00,00,000 Equity Shares (Rs.300 Crores at lower band and Rs.330 Crores at upper band)

Net Issue : 4,75,00,000 Equity Shares (Rs.285 Crores at lower band and Rs.313.50 Crores at upper band)

QIB : 2,85,00,000(60% of Net Issue) Equity Shares (Rs.171 Crores at lower band and Rs.188.10 Crores at upper band)

HNI : 47,50,000(10% of Net Issue) Equity Shares (Rs.28.50 Crores at lower band and Rs.31.35 Crores at upper band)

Retail : 1,42,50,000(30% of Net Issue) Equity Shares (Rs.85.50 Crores at lower band and Rs.94.05 Crores at upper band)

Friday, February 19, 2010

Estimate the fiscal deficit to be 5.7% of GDP

Budget 2010-11 Preview

Fiscal balances – deciding factor

q We do not expect the forthcoming Union Budget 2011 to dish out any big bang reforms/measures for India Inc

q We believe that THE MOST IMPORTANT THING to look for in the forthcoming Union Budget 2011 will be the FISCAL DEFICIT and the GOVERNMENT BORROWING PROGRAM

q We estimate the fiscal deficit to be at Rs3.9tn/US$85bn (5.7% of GDP) for FY11. We believe that high fiscal deficit will continue to bring pressure on the G-Sec yields and the market valuations too

q We believe that there would be only partial roll back of the excise duties cut in stimulus budget, though a roll back of service tax looks very likely

q Pressure points to budget may arise from inability to disinvest PSUs and subsidies. Food and petroleum subsidies may pose serious problems for the government finances

q As usual, we are expecting the expenditure to continue on plans, especially infrastructure including transport and urabn infra, energy and health

q Hence, some winners of the budget would be infrastructure companies

q The banking and financial services companies may turn out to be losers if the fiscal deficit is higher than expected

Closure of Network 18 FD Scheme in Shareholder category

Pls. note that with your valuable support the shareholder quota is also subscribed in NETWORK 18 MEDIA & INVESTMENT LTD.

We have Stopped accepting the shareholders quota with immediate effect.

Thursday, February 18, 2010

if Nifty manages to clear 4929, more upside

Due to a range bound session, Nifty finally closed with a formation of an inside bar on daily degree, which means that the breakout on either side will decide the next move. Further, Nifty is still trading within a rising channel with both 20-SMA and 50-EMA still acting as a good support, indicating that the current bounce is still not out of breadth. Moreover, today's sideways consolidation has just turned into a Flag formation, which is generally treated as small pause in the ongoing move. So if Nifty manages to clear 4929 current bounce will see more extensions in the northward direction. Above 4929 next level to watch out for resistance is 4993.

Trading Ideas

Remain stock specific from current levels.

Mid term trading ideas which we continue to like are SREI Infra (Target Rs75), JP Associates (Target Rs151), Punj Lloyd (Target Rs206) & Spice Jet (Target Rs68). Traders maintain stop loss accordingly.

Investment Ideas

HEG Ltd: CMP @ Rs340 (Target Rs458)

Nifty 4952 remains a short term hurdle. volumes dip in this pullback.

· DXY a 'bullish outside engulfing'; sharp upsides in store.

· INR pattern re-test complete expect 49-50 soon.

· Bearish H&S developing on indices worldwide.

· Nifty 4952 remains a short term hurdle.

· Nifty volumes dip in this pullback.

Wednesday, February 17, 2010

REC FPO @203 on 19Feb

Rural Electrification Corporation Ltd FPO

BRLM: Kotak/ BofA Merrill Lynch/ ICICI Sec/ JM Fin/ RBS Eqts (I) Ltd

Issue Period: February 19– February 23, 2010

Floor Price: Rs.203/- for Retail and HNI category.

Lot Size: 30 Shares and Multiple of 30 shares

Registrar: Karvy

Issue: 171,732,000 Equity Shares of Rs.10/- each (128,799,000 Equity shares as fresh issue and 42,933,000 Equity Shares as offer for sale)

Net offer to Public: 171,382,000 Equity Shares

QIB Book:                                         85,691,000 shares (50% of Net issue size)
Retail Book:                                      59,983,700 shares (35% of Net issue size)
HNI Book:                                        25,707,300 shares (15% of Net issue size)

Employee Reservation is 3,50,000 Eqty Shares

Nifty 4952 - The next barrier, bounce up to 5070 level is quite possible.

4952 - The next barrier

With support from positive cues across the globe, Nifty started the day on a positive note. Going further, bulls managed to keep the ball in their court till the end with a close above 4900 on good volumes, which is a boost in the favor the bulls. The current scenario indicates that if Nifty manages to clear 4930 and above that 4952 then the bounce can extend up to 5070 level. Additionally, both hourly and daily cycles are currently standing in the support of the bulls, so the extension of the bounce up to 5070 level is quite possible.

BSE Metal

BSE Metal continued its upside journey and broke the resistance of 16203 and finally closed above that at 16435 with a gain of 3.24%.On the daily chart as this index closed above the 21DEMA, thus we may witness some recovery in this index on account of which it can heighten upto 16636 levels.

BSE Bankex

Buying was witness in the BSE Bankex and it broke the 21DEMA and finally closed above that at 9605 with a gain of 1.75%. Going forward now this index has resistance at 9729 and in the coming days if this index starts trading above this level then we will witness further upside.

Trading Ideas

Remain stock specific from current levels.
Mid term trading ideas which we continue to like are SREI Infra (Target Rs75), JP Associates (Target Rs151), Punj Lloyd (Target Rs206) & ENIL (Target Rs275). Traders maintain stop loss accordingly.