INVESTORS PLEASE LISTEN !: March 2010

Wednesday, March 31, 2010

Crompton Greaves acquiring at UK based company called Power Technology solutions

Crompton Greaves has been in the news for acquiring at UK based company called Power Technology solutions, also Avantha Power & Infra has filed for draft red herring prospectus. The Avantha IPO especially would be a positive for the stock price of Crompton.

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Tuesday, March 30, 2010

Persistent Systems - Basis of Allotment Available Now

Persistent Systems
Issue Dates - 17-3-2010 to 19-3-2010
Issue Price Rs.310/-
Oversubscription Figures:
HNI : 102.260907 x
RETAIL : 20.062289 x
Basis of allocation under Retail:
No of Shares Applied	No. of Shares Allotted	Ratio
No of Shares Applied	No. of Shares Allotted	Ratio
20	20	1:20
40	20	1:10
60	20	3:20
80	20	1:5
100	20	1:4
120	20	3:10
140	20	7:20
160	20	2:5
180	20	9:20
200	20	1:2
220	20	11:20
240	20	3:5
260	20	13:20
280	20	7:10
300	20	3:4
320	20	51:64

Monday, March 29, 2010

Market View on Crude Oil

Dear Investors

Benchmark Crude oil prices were down about $2/bbl on average in February, but the month on month sharp recovery in prices over the last three weeks of the month due to follwing factors-

1- Oil markets in February were hit by the financial meltdown in Greece, with widespread fears the crisis would spread to the rest of the Eurozone, conspiring to push prices to six week lows.

2- In Nigeria, renewed violence and attacks on oil infrastructure resumed in February, threatening the country's oil exports yet again after more than six months of relative calm.

3-The global community appears to be moving closer to imposing tougher sanctions on Iran as the country continues to pursue its nuclear ambitions. Plans by the US, UK, Germany and France, among others, to tighten sanctions under the umbrella of the United Nations in response to Tehran's intransigence over its nuclear programme have been stymied by lack of support from China but this is not likely to deter countries from imposing their own tougher sanctions. While Iran has threatened to halt oil exports if further sanctions are implemented, the impact on the market would be muted by the current high levels of stocks.

By contrast, national elections in Iraq proceeded in relative calm on 7 March, which many now hope will improve the prospects for the strife torn country, especially its plans to boost oil production.Though it will likely take months for the government to build a working coalition, the elections provided a welcome boost in confidence for the country's new joint venture partners.

While concerns that geopolitical issues could affect oil supply flows from key OPEC producers added upward pressure to futures prices, physical oil supplies continued to provide a counter weight. Stocks, both onshore and at sea, have come in from peak levels but are still high. Non OPEC production is on course to rise by a further 300 kb/d in 2010, with Russian production setting new records in February.

OPEC production also increased to a 14 month high of 29.2 mb/d in February. In addition, refiners have scheduled a heavier than usual seasonal maintenance work programme over the next several months, which will reduce spot purchases of crude oil. Even China is slated to curtail refinery runs in March after four months of steadily higher throughput rates.The anticipated call on OPEC crude and stocks looks unlikely to breach 29.5 mb/d on a sustained basis, so market fundamentals should continue to provide a brake on upward price aspirations. Offsetting that, equity and currency markets could continue to play a more bullish role.

Buy L&T CMP: Rs. 1,636, Target: Rs1,810

Larsen & Toubro

Reco: ACCUMULATE

CMP: Rs. 1,636

Target Price: Rs. 1,810

All Is Well… Upgrade to Accumulate

We recently met the management of Larsen & Toubro (L&T) to get an update on business environment and company's future prospects. We remain positive on L&T – considering clearance of bottlenecks in order execution coupled with promising outlook for target sectors and satisfactory progress in subsidiary companies. Consequently, we roll-over the valuations of core business to FY12E earnings and revise our SoTP price from Rs1,525/Share to Rs1,810/Share and upgrade our rating from 'HOLD' to 'ACCUMULATE'.

Sunday, March 28, 2010

Pfizer: In-line with our estimate; maintain buy; Target: Rs1,040

Pfizer Ltd

Reco: BUY

CMP: Rs956

Target Price: Rs1,040

In-line with our estimate; maintain buy

Pfizer Q1CY10 results are in-line with expectations with a) 9% revenue growth to Rs2.07bn, b) 200bps expansion in operating margins to 24.9% and c) 9% growth in APAT to Rs425mn. Revenue growth was largely driven by 15% growth in service business and 9% growth in pharma segment. Despite higher raw mat cost (up 24% qoq and 12% yoy), operating margins for the quarter expanded by 200bps yoy to 24.9% because of a) 200bps reduction in employee cost and b) 100bps reduction in other expenditures. Higher depreciation cost (up by 14%) and lower interest income (declined by 16% to Rs155mn) restricted the PAT growth at 9% to Rs425mn. Going forward, we expect company to grow in-line with the industry growth on the back of a) new launches both from parent's pipeline as well as branded generic portfolio, b) focus on key brands and c) market expansion in the rural areas. We are of the view that Pfizer-Wyeth merger in India will lead to the re-rating of the stock. We maintain our earnings estimate of Rs56.7 and Rs65.6 for CY10E and CY11E respectively and re-iterate our buy rating with a price target of Rs1,040.

Saturday, March 27, 2010

My Market View: Cautiously Positive Overweight on Infra, Capital Goods, Pharma, Metals, Oil & Gas, Auto

My Market View:

Current Level:

Nifty 5282
Sensex 17645

Comment:

Cautiously Positive
Overweight on Infra, Capital Goods, Pharma, Metals, Oil & Gas, Auto
Inflation cooling down
RBIs monetary tightening discounted
While worries about sovereign debt crisis remain these may not derail markets in the short term FII flows expected to be positive
Positive news flow on US economic data
Europe's debt crisis may accelerate into a major default – causing a major correction

Thursday, March 25, 2010

Nifty broke the trading range on upside after taking support at 50-HEMA

50-HEMA holds

Finally, today Nifty broke the trading range on upside after taking support at 50-HEMA. Moreover, the hourly momentum cycle has also turned bullish from the neutral line, which indicates that the uptrend is still intact with higher top higher bottom in place. Banking is one sector, which looks strong as of now and has a brighter chance to outperform in the coming session.

Trading Ideas

Remain stock specific from current levels.
Mid term trading ideas which we like are Biocon (Target Rs304),Divis Lab (Target Rs716), HDIL (Target Rs318) and Unitech (Target Rs80). Traders maintain stop loss accordingly.

Investment Ideas

JSW Steel: CMP @ Rs1,280 (Target Rs1,521)

IL&FS Transportation Networks - Basis of Allotment

IL&FS Transportation Networks
Issue Dates - 11-3-2010 to 15-3-2010
Issue Price Rs.258/-
Oversubscription Figures:
HNI : 37.56392 x
RETAIL : 4.751332 x
Basis of allocation under Retail:
No of Shares Applied	No. of Shares Allotted	Ratio
No of Shares Applied	No. of Shares Allotted	Ratio
25	25	4:19
50	25	8:19
75	25	12:19
100	25	16:19
125	26	1:1
150	32	1:1
175	37	1:1
200	42	1:1
225	47	1:1
250	53	1:1
275	58	1:1
300	63	1:1
325	68	1:1
350	74	1:1
375	78	1:1
375	1	81:89