Monday, November 1, 2010

Result Update: Maruti Suzuki India; Jaiprakash Associates; Grasim Industries; Voltamp Transformers; Jagran Prakashan; Century Plyboards (India); Godrej Consumer Products

Maruti Suzuki India

Reco: HOLD

CMP: Rs1,551

Target Price: Rs1,600

Yen depreciation/price hike the key, downgrade to HOLD

·      Results marginally below est. due to lower sales and higher tax rate. APAT at Rs 6.2bn (est. Rs 6.4bn). Adj EBIDT at Rs 9.9bn (es. -Rs 10.3bn), margins at 10.8% (est. 11.0%)

·      Yen depreciation/price hike crucial for margin upgrades/stock performance. Lower JPY/Re est. for FY12 to 1.85 (from 1.9). 2HFY11 margins to be lower by 70 bps due to currency

·      Upgrade FY11E/FY12E volumes est. by. 2.6% to 1.26mn/1.44mn units. Lower FY11E/FY12E EPS by 3.5% to Rs 85.7/Rs 98.Price hike not assumed, due to lack of intent

·      Downgrade rating to HOLD, however raise TP to Rs 1600 (up 10%) due to valuation upgrade (8.5x EV/EBIDTA) due to strong volume outlook and higher return ratios

 

 

Jaiprakash Associates

Reco: ACCUMULATE

CMP: Rs120

Target Price: Rs150

Construction rebounds sharply-Numbers in line

·      JPA Q2FY11 numbers ahead of estimates at EBITDA level, 3X increase in deferred tax leads to in line PAT.  Topline growth of 62.3% - construction up 73%, cement up 43%

·      Construction segment rebounds sharply with 83% growth in EBIT, margins at ~21% (v/s ~7.3% in Q1FY11). Realty segment delivers a whopping 356% growth in EBIT

·      JPA is on strong growth path across all its segments- plans to reach a cement capacity of 37 mtpa by end FY12. Expect significant order accretion from New HPPs like lower Siang

·      Stock trades at 22.6X its FY12 standalone earnings and 7.6X EBIDTA. Maintain our earnings, ACCUMULATE rating and price target

 

 

Grasim Industries

Reco: ACCUMULATE

CMP: Rs2,240

Target Price: Rs2,600

Net profit above estimates- EBIDTA disappoints

·      Grasims's Q2FY11 net profit at Rs2.79bn (-5.2%yoy) ahead of estimates (led by high other income earned through dividends from subsidiaries). Core VSF EBIDTA below estimates

·      Revenue decline 1.3%qoq due to 1.2% fall in VSF realization and lower volumes due to plant shutdowns. EBITDA for the quarter at Rs2.64bn declined 22.1%yoy and 12.4%qoq

·      Expect VSF performance to improve in subsequent quarter driven by better realisations & pick up in volumes. Introducing earnings post de-merger of cement business

·      Upgrade price target to Rs2,600 driven by upgrade in Ultratech's Target price and growing VSF demand. Stock implying 44% holding co discount-Maintain ACCUMULATE

 

 

Voltamp Transformers

Reco: HOLD

CMP: Rs862

Target Price: Rs840

Margins go down further

·      Competition led significant hit (780 bps yoy) in the EBITDA margins to 10.1%, resulted in PAT decline of 46% yoy 

·      Pricing visibility not there, margins to remain under pressure; annual report MDA hints towards much lower margins

·      Downgrade earnings by 21/19% for FY11E/12E driven by lower margin (-250bps) assumption (12/13% in FY11E/12E)

·      Valuations (EV) not cheap at 6.7x FY12E EBITDA (30% premium to peers); Maintain Hold, Reduce target to Rs839

 

 

Jagran Prakashan

Reco: BUY

CMP: Rs129

Target Price: Rs155

Slightly below estimates, Reiterate BUY

·      PAT up 10.4% YoY to Rs555mn, below our estimate of Rs599mn due to lower than expected ad-revenue growth during the quarter

·      Advertisement revenue growth was at just 12.7% yoy impacted by floods, Ayodhya verdict and shift of festive season to Q3 in FY11 v/s Q2 in FY10

·      Ad-revenue growth fully led by realization growth - mix of yield improvement and rate hike

·      Retain EPS estimate of Rs 7.0 and Rs 8.6 for FY11E and FY12E respectively. Retain BUY rating with target Rs 155

 

 

Century Plyboards (India)

Reco: BUY

CMP: Rs68

Target Price: Rs80

Results above estimates. Maintain BUY

·      Q2FY11 PAT at Rs420 mn ahead of expectations (Rs276 mn) - led by better than expected profitability of cement & Plywood division

·      Revenue (Rs3.41 bn) growth of +20.2%- aided by 36.1% growth in plywood & laminates (P&L) segment and 262% growth in Ferro alloys segment. Cement declines 5% yoy  

·      CPL commissions new CFS at Kolkata. 3X expansion in cement capacity by Q3FY12.  Kick-start of volume led growth in cement and CFS in FY12 to drive 23% earnings CAGR

·      Management examining proposal of de-merger of CPL into three entities-Valuations at PER of 7.4X FY12E earnings remain attractive. Maintain BUY with a target of Rs80

 

 

Godrej Consumer Products

Reco: ACCUMULATE

CMP: Rs421

Target Price: Rs477

Led By Consolidation, Maintain Accumulate

·      Godrej Consumer Products (GCPL) Q2FY11 performance exceeds expectation – APAT growth of 40% yoy to Rs1.3 bn

·      New drivers like GHPL and Megasari reported strong traction, erstwhile drivers Africa, UK and Standalone operations witness pressures

·      Upgrade growth assumptions for GHPL and Megasari, Downgrade growth assumptions for Keyline

·      Upgrade earnings by 7% for FY11E (Rs19.5/Share) and FY12E (Rs20.3/Share) – Maintain 'ACCUMULATE' rating with revised target price of Rs447/Share

 

--
Safe Harbor:
The information contained and provided on this Website provides Investment advice for the education of investors. The posts are an information service only. Recommendations, opinions or suggestions are given with the understanding that readers acting on this information assume all risks involved. We do not assume any responsibility or liability resulting from the use of such information, judgment and opinions for Trading or Investment purposes.
 
You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Investors Please Listen !" group.
To post to this group, send email to investorspleaselisten@googlegroups.com
To unsubscribe from this group, send email to
investorspleaselisten+unsubscribe@googlegroups.com For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/investorspleaselisten?hl=en

No comments:

Blog Archive

Promote Your Blog

Life Insurance | Health Insurance | Auto Insurance


Investors Please Listen !

 
More than 100 kinds of Insurance products from more than
20 companies under one roof.



Call: 9818269396 
investorspleaselisten@in.com
www.investorspleaselisten.blogspot.com

 

 

Safe Harbor:

The information contained and provided on this Website provides Investment advice for the education of investors. The posts are an information service only. Recommendations, opinions or suggestions are given with the understanding that readers acting on this information assume all risks involved. We do not assume any responsibility or liability resulting from the use of such information, judgment and opinions for Trading or Investment purposes.
Powered by Olark
Advertising Learn to Invest