Monday, January 31, 2011

NTPC Company Update; Results hinting at change in grossing up again; Hold; Target: Rs 190


Reco: HOLD

CMP: Rs188

Target Price: Rs190

Results hinting at change in grossing up again

·      APAT of Rs23.2bn (prior year sales not adj.) is higher than est. of Rs20.6bn - we see change in grossing up again to full tax rate led by 25.6% tax rate in the qtr (project delays)

·      Detailed analysis of Q310 & Q311 numbers indicate that Q311 APAT should have been lower byRs5.7bn, had NTPC followed MAT rate grossing up but actually its lower by only Rs450mn  

·      Though this might increase our FY11E earnings by ~10% but we believe that NTPC in all probabilities is likely to fall under MAT rate in FY12E - thus no change in FY12E earnings

·      Valuations at 2.2xFY12E Book value, reasonable on core ROE of 25%; to review earnings post the concall tomorrow; Maintain Hold

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