Southwest Monsoon Update ; August 05, 2009 ; Getting worse
The advancement of the Southwest monsoon deteriorated sharply as the rainfall the rainfall worsened to 25.2% below normal for season till the week ended August 05, 2009 compared to 19% below normal in the preceding week. Moreover, nearly 70% of the areas are witnessing deficient/scanty rainfall. Rainfall for the week ended August 5, 2009 was 66% below normal.
Although, reservoir levels are near their 10-year average on all India basis, in key agricultural areas like Uttar Pradesh, Punjab and Haryana is at alarmingly low level. In UP, the reservoir levels as on August 6, 2009 were 17% below the last year level and in Punjab 36% below last year. Even though the reservoir levels were as good as last year or 10-year average on all India basis as on August 6, 2009, the deficient rainfall in coming weeks would mean that the levels will be significantly lower for full season.
Although, as we had mentioned in our last note that the acreages was down by just 5.4% till July 31, 2009, there are two key risks to the Kharif crop production: (1) rice which contributes >60% of Kharif foodgrains has seen acreage down by 25% over last year which means that the drop in production will be much larger than drop in the acreage and (2) deficient rainfall in coming weeks would mean monetary loss to farmers who have already sown seeds.
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