Monday, April 20, 2009

[Investors Please Listen] Media and Entertainment - IPL 2 vs. IPL 1: Impact Analysis on GECs/ news channels; sector update

IPL 2 faces shift in location and election challenges

In 2009, Indian Premier League (IPL) faces many challenges—new locations and schedules and the upcoming national elections. In this note we try to answer questions like—how is the viewership of IPL 2 likely to compare with IPL 1? How do factors like lower media coverage, less local connect, low scoring matches, longer ad breaks, and elections impact viewership of IPL 2? Who will be the potential gainers/losers?

 

Ratings lower compared to last time; may dip further in medium term 

IPL 2 has opened to lower viewership ratings compared to the inaugural version (IPL 1) last year. As per TAM, the inaugural match garnered a TVR of only 5.5 compared to 8.21 for IPL 1. This is likely to dip further in the medium term before it picks up in the final stages (initially viewership is higher because of higher enthusiasm).

 

Low media coverage and local connect

The intensity of media coverage for IPL 2 will be less compared to IPL 1 (companies are cutting costs in the wake of ad meltdown). During IPL 1, most news channels and print companies had deputed many reporters to cover the matches as they had bureaus in cities in which the tournament was played. However, during IPL 2, media companies have sent only one-two reporters to South Africa. Also, the higher costs of satellite uplink from South Africa have forced news channels to devote more time to other issues. The trend in IPL 1 saw higher viewership in cities on days when the franchisees of those cities were playing. However in IPL 2, Mumbai has delivered better viewership (9.92 versus 7.26) for the second match (Rajasthan Royals versus Royal Challengers) than the first match (Mumbai Indian versus Chennai Super Kings) which is an indication of lower local connect.

 

Low scoring matches and longer ad breaks play spoilsport

As per AMAP, average time spent by viewers was 32 minutes on first match of IPL 2 compared to ~ 50 minutes for the first match of IPL 1. The possible reason behind the lower ratings is that the 'connect with viewer' is lower. In IPL 2, matches have turned out to be rather low scoring in comparison to those played on Indian pitches last year (this trend is likely to continue due to bowler friendly pitches and more movement in the ball). There is likely to be  a larger role for bowlers (especially spinners) compared to IPL 1 (which means less excitement as lesser number of sixes, big shots, and high scores). There has been a change in the format of IPL this time with an extra break (which is rather long). The seven and a half minute break scheduled after 10 overs in each innings for teams could frustrate viewers and result in losing viewership to other channels.

 

GECs and news channels will be likely gainers if current viewership trend continues

Based on the above mentioned factors, we expect viwership of IPL 2 to be lower than that of IPL 1. This means GECs and news channels are likely to gain as some advertisers may shift to these genres.


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The information contained and provided on this Website provides Investment advice for the education of investors. The posts are an information service only. Recommendations, opinions or suggestions are given with the understanding that readers acting on this information assume all risks involved. We do not assume any responsibility or liability resulting from the use of such information, judgment and opinions for Trading or Investment purposes.
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