INVESTORS PLEASE LISTEN !: July 2009

Friday, July 31, 2009

ADANI POWER LIMITED - Bid details

Sr.No.	Category	No.of shares offered/reserved	No. of shares bid for	No. of times of total meant for the category
1	Qualified Institutional Buyers (QIBs)	123333869	4868686420	39.4757
1(a)	Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs)		3147261910
1(b)	Domestic Financial Institutions(Banks/ Financial Institutions(FIs)/ Insurance Companies)		1199531840
1(c)	Mutual Funds		515892910
1(d)	Others		5999760
2	Non Institutional Investors	29365203	253139250	8.6204
2(a)	Corporates		166931765
2(b)	Individuals (Other than RIIs)		74860045
2(c)	Others		11347440
3	Retail Individual Investors (RIIs)	88095609	261464255	2.9680
3(a)	Cut Off		244060635
3(b)	Price Bids		17403620
4	Employee Reservation	8000000	891020	0.1114
4(a)	Cut Off		1235
4(b)	Price Bids		889785

Updated as on 31 Jul 2009 at 2000 hrs

[Investors Please Listen] Adani PowerLtd - Branch List of escrow bankers / Subscription figures as on 31-07-09 @ 4.00 P.M.

Adani PowerLtd - Branch List of escrow bankers / Subscription figures as on 31-07-09 @ 4.00 P.M.

Subscription figures as on 31-07-09 @ 4.00 P.M.

QIB : 39.44

HNI : 8.50

Retail : 2.21

EMP : 1.27

Overall : 21.34

Application Forms – 446883

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[Investors Please Listen] ADANI POWER LTD: - Subscription figures as on 31-07-09 @ 12.00 P.M. - IST

ADANI POWER LTD: - Subscription figures as on 31-07-09 @ 12.00 P.M. (IST)

QIB : 16.64

HNI : 2.24

Retail : 1.04

EMP :

SHA :

Overall: 8.88

[Investors Please Listen] Patni Limited Q2CY09 Result Update ; 'Blockbuster' quarter; EPS upped by ~46% ; NOT RATED ;

Not Rated

CMP: Rs 328 Target Price: N A

Patni reported revenues of US$ 162 mn (+3.5% QoQ) marginally ahead of expectations

Operating profits at Rs 1649 mn(+36% YoY, +15.5% QoQ) came in significantly higher than expectations driven by cost control measures, in line with the trends exhibited in almost all the IT service company results reported till date during the quarter. EBIT mgns are the highest ever reported in the past 9 quarters.

Net profits at Rs 1368 mn (+32% YoY), beat estimates by a mile driven by superlative margin beat

Increase our already higher than consensus CY09/CY10 EPS estimates by ~46% to Rs 34.2 and Rs 38.6.

Patni continues to deliver better than expected, vindicating our positive stance on the company in the recent months. We expect significant EPS upgrades on the street and would not rule out a further 25% upside from the current levels. (even after a 100%+ move over the past 3 months)

Encouraged by co's measures to invest in hiring senior and middle level management, which should bode well for growth going forward.

Continues to deliver along our positive thesis

Patni reported revenues at US$ 162 mn (+3.5% QoQ), marginally ahead of our expectations (Emkay est of US$ 160.7 mn). However the stellar operating margin performance stood out with the company reporting highest op mgns ever in the past 9 quarters. Net profits at Rs 1368 mn(+32% YoY) beat estimates by a mile ( Emkay est of Rs 917 mn) led by significant out performance on margins. Revenue growth was led by ~2.2% sequential volume increase and project ramp up in a top client where business has shifted from Satyam.

Top clients lead the growth

Revenues from Top 5 clients grew by 14.3% QoQ as one of the top clients shifted business from Satyam to Patni during the quarter. Revenues from Insurance were up 12% sequentially. The company's active client count reduced to 294 V/s 320 during March'09 as a result of natural client attrition (note that Patni has historically had a long tail of client accounts). We would expect growth within top 5 clients to continue going forward as our channel checks indicate further ramp up in an existing insurance client and another multiple year multiple mn new client win in the recent past.

Up CY09/CY10 EPS estimates by ~46%

We have revised our CY09/CY10 EPS estimates upwards by ~46% to Rs 34.2 and Rs 38.6 respectively and expect similar upgrades from the street as well. Even after a 100%+ run up in the stock price over the past 3 months, we do not rule out a further 25% upside from current levels.

Positive stance gets reinforced

Our positive view on Patni over the past few months continues to get vindicated with the company not only taking quick steps to take significant cost control measures but also making future investments in addressing the senior and middle management lacuna recently (Patni had suffered exit of several key executives post FY07 which had impacted business prospects negatively) . Co mgmt during the investor call indicated that it was looking at inorganic opportunities to fill up service line/vertical portfolio gaps. We continue to maintain positive stance towards Patni.

[Investors Please Listen] NFO : Edelweiss Absolute Return Equity Fund.

NFO opens 3^rd August 2009 and closes 7^th August 2009.

Edelweiss Absolute Return Equity Fund is an open ended equity scheme that seeks to generate absolute returns with low volatility over a longer tenure of time.

The scheme will invest in arbitrage opportunities, equity derivative strategies, pure equity investments and the balance in debt and money market instruments.

The Scheme proposes to allocate assets to both equity and debt markets based upon the market view.

The Fund will seek to employ a multi-strategy approach to investing with effective allocation of risk and capital by executing multiple strategies across the risk-return spectrum.

The Fund will look at asset allocation decisions based on opportunities available and yields exhibited across:

Ø Special Situations: Corporate events such as open offers, merger, de-merger, bonus, right, split, delisting, etc.

Ø Directional Trading: Market opportunities, effective risk migration and monitoring.

Ø Low Risk Books: Cash Futures arbitrage and other arbitrage strategies.

Thursday, July 30, 2009

[Investors Please Listen] TVS Motor Company Limited ( TVSM)– Q1FY10 Result expectation: PAT is expected to grow by 244% to Rs 242 mn due to low base and expectation of strong operating performance.

We expect TVSM to report a moderate growth in revenue, due to mere 5.2% YoY growth in volumes to 347,088 units. However , we expect strong performance at the operating level backed by decline in metal prices.

- Net sales is expected to grow by 6.3% YOY to Rs 9.8bn.

- EBITDA is expected to grow by 49.6% YoY to Rs 662mn.

- PAT is expected to grow by 244% to Rs 242 mn due to low base and expectation of strong operating performance.

Excel Infoways Ltd IPO Allotment Status

IPO Allotment Status is now available online for Excel Infoways Ltd IPO.

Excel Infoways Ltd IPO was open on July 14, 2009 and closed on July 17, 2009. IPO was oversubscribed by 1.97 times (2.6438 times in retail).

Visit http://www.linkintime.co.in/site/ipo.asp to check your application status. Excel Infoways Ltd IPO Listing Date will be available soon.

Looking for local information? Find it on Yahoo! Local

[Investors Please Listen] TATA Chemicals Q1FY10 Results Expectations – Net Sales Rs 17 bn, PAT Rs 1.2 bn

On consolidated basis, we expect net revenues to decline by 22% to Rs 17.0 bn. EBITDA margins are expected to decline by 70 bps to 22.3% YoY. As a result we expect EBITDA of Rs 3.8 bn, -25.1% YoY. We expect PAT of Rs 1.2 bn, -50.6% YoY and an EPS of Rs 4.8 for Q1FY10 as against Rs 9.7 in Q1FY09.

TCL on standalone
On stand alone basis we expect TCL to report net revenues of Rs 8.5 bn, -29.5% YoY. EBITDA Margins are expected to decline by 780 bps resulting in an EBITDA of Rs 1.3 bn. PAT is expected to come down by 78.4% YoY to Rs 404 mn.
We expect Urea sales volume to decline by 23% to 204 thousand mt while complex fertiliser is expected to increase by 118% to 172 thousand mt. Fertiliser EBIT is expected to decline by 69% to Rs 388 mn.
Revenues from chemical segment are expected to increase by 20% YoY to Rs 3.8 bn. And the EBIT is also expected to fall 60% to Rs 451 mn.

Subsidiary performance
BMGL's revenues are expected to decline by 9% to Rs 4.5 bn. We expect EBITDA margins of 25% resulting in an EBITDA of Rs 1129 mn and subsequent PAT of Rs 399 mn.
IMACID is expected to report net revenues of Rs 828 mn for the quarter. Contribution of IMACID towards Net Revenues is expected to be 20%. We expect EBITDA margins to fall by 1970 bps to 10%. EBITDA is expected to decline by 92% to 83 mn. We expect PAT of Rs 2 mn.
GCIP's contribution in net revenues is expected at Rs 3.2 bn with an EBITDA of Rs 1.3 bn. Profit after minority interest is expected at Rs 359 mn.

Wednesday, July 29, 2009

[Investors Please Listen] Shriram Transport Finance Company’s Rs 1,000-crore non-convertible debenture issue has been subscribed 4.5 times.

July 28 Shriram Transport Finance Company's Rs 1,000-crore non-convertible debenture issue has been subscribed 4.5 times.

The issue opened on Tuesday. By evening, the company had received subscriptions worth Rs 4,500 crore, according to sources.

The issue was for raising Rs 500 crore, with a (greenshoe) option of retaining an additional Rs 500 crore.

It is learnt that only the portion earmarked for retail investors, of Rs 200 crore, was not fully subscribed. However, the issue is open until August 14.

Options

The company has the option of making good any shortfall in retail subscription from the oversubscriptions for the qualified instructional placements and high net worth individual portions.

Shares of the company on Tuesday closed trading at Rs 299 on the BSE after losing 1.08 per cent from the previous close.

Published by Hindu Business Line

[Investors Please Listen] Punj Lloyd Q1FY10 Result Update ; Rating 'Under Review' CMP: Rs240

CMP: Rs240 Target Price: UR

Punj Lloyd (PLL) reported better than expected performance in Q1FY09 with (1) 12.2% growth in revenues (2) 50 bps yoy expansion in operating margins and (3) 30.3% yoy increase in adjusted net profits – as against our expectations of a decline. Order backlog increased 38.3% yoy to Rs379 bn led by robust order inflows of Rs100 bn (up 86.0% yoy and equivalent to 78.2% of FY10E order inflows). There was enhanced clarity on vulnerable orders worth Rs20 bn, hitherto facing client-led delays – but orders worth Rs17.7 bn (6.4% of order book) continued to face client led delays. Balance sheet quality continues to deteriorate with DER increasing from 1.0X to 1.3X. With 78.2% of expected order inflows received in Q1FY10, likelihood of new order inflows in H2FY10E and margin guidance at 9.5-10.5%, upside room to FY10E and FY11E earnings have materialized. With likely near-term equity dilution, we will review our earnings estimates and rating shortly. Consequently, we keep our rating and earnings estimates 'Under Review'

Tuesday, July 28, 2009

[Investors Please Listen] Jagran Prakashan Ltd (JPL) Strong operating performance, at CMP of Rs98, the stock trades at expensive valuations of 19x FY11E EPS of Rs5.

Net sales grew by 12.3% YoY to Rs 2318.7mn on the back of (1) 14.94% increase in advertisement revenue to Rs 1609.2 mn and (2) 15.3% YoY increase in circulation revenue to 545.2mn led by price hike taken in Dec 08. However income from OOH & event management business declined by 7.7% YoY to Rs 134mn.
EBITDA increased by strong 50% YoY to Rs704.5mn mainly due to 4% decline in raw material cost. Prudent news print inventory management and fall in newsprint price resulted in 513 bps YoY decline in raw material expense translating into 633bps YoY improvement in EBITDA margin to 30.4%, highest in last 9 quarters.
Net Profit increased by 56.2% YoY to Rs 494.5 mn led by better operating performance.
During the quarter Dainik Jagran's circulation increased by 3.5% YoY, reflecting its continued strong foothold in the market.
In light of better operating performance and declining news print prices, we maintain positive view on the stock. However, at CMP of Rs98, the stock trades at expensive valuations of 19x FY11E EPS of Rs5. Stock not rated.
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Safe Harbor:
The information contained and provided on this Website provides Investment advice for the education of investors. The posts are an information service only. Recommendations, opinions or suggestions are given with the understanding that readers acting on this information assume all risks involved. We do not assume any responsibility or liability resulting from the use of such information, judgment and opinions for Trading or Investment purposes.

[Investors Please Listen] NHPC Ltd IPO opening on August 7

Incorporated in 1975, NHPC Limited (Formerly known as National Hydroelectric Power Corporation Ltd.) is a Govt. of India's Enterprise. NHPC is a hydroelectric power generating company dedicated to the planning, development and implementation of an integrated and efficient network of hydroelectric projects in India. They execute all aspects of the development of hydroelectric projects, from concept to commissioning.

The price band for the issue has been fixed at Rs 30/- at lower level and Rs 36/- at upper level for equity share of Rs 10/-.. NHPC Ltd is entering in the capital markets with an initial public offering, IPO of 1,67,73,74,015 Equity Shares for cash, at a premium to be decided through a 100% Book Built Issue.

The issue opens on August 7, 2009, and closes for subscription on August 12, 2009. The equity shares of the company are proposed to be listed on the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) and National Stock Exchange (NSE).

Looking for local information? Find it on Yahoo! Local --~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~
Safe Harbor:
The information contained and provided on this Website provides Investment advice for the education of investors. The posts are an information service only. Recommendations, opinions or suggestions are given with the understanding that readers acting on this information assume all risks involved. We do not assume any responsibility or liability resulting from the use of such information, judgment and opinions for Trading or Investment purposes.

[Investors Please Listen] Bank of Baroda : Tough quarter gone by: Recommendation: Hold Price target: Rs444 Current market price: Rs417

Cluster: Apple Green

Result highlights

For Q1FY2010 Bank of Baroda (BoB) has reported a bottom line of Rs685.4 crore, up 85% year on year (yoy). The growth, despite a weaker top line growth, was mainly driven by strong treasury gains and the write-back of marked-to-market (MTM) provisions made earlier.

The net interest income (NII) for the quarter stood at Rs1,204.7 crore, up a weak 14.0% yoy but down 18.1% quarter on quarter (qoq). The NII growth was weaker than expected, despite a strong advances growth, primarily due to a 23-basis-point year-on-year (y-o-y) contraction in the calculated net interest margin (NIM) to 2.08%.

The sharp sequential contraction in the NIM primarily stemmed from a 50-basis-point cut in the prime lending rate (PLR) implemented by the bank with effect from April 01, 2009. The reduction in the cost of deposits is likely to show its impact with a lag. Moreover, the bank booked income from tax refund as interest income in the previous quarter, thereby boosting its NIM in the previous quarter.

The non-interest income grew significantly by 37.2% yoy to Rs703.0 crore, mainly driven by a 180.2% y-o-y jump in the treasury gains. Notably, the income from commission, exchange and brokerage grew by robust 28.9% yoy while the growth in the income from foreign exchange (forex) transactions, recoveries and incidental charges remained subdued during the quarter.

The operating expenses during the quarter grew by 16.7% yoy to Rs897.8 crore, as the staff expenses and the other operating expenses rose by 13.7% yoy and 23.1% yoy respectively. During the quarter the bank made provision of Rs45.1 crore towards AS-15 while Rs75 crore was provided towards wage hike arrears.

The provisions for the quarter shrank sharply and in fact, at the net level, the bank wrote back Rs39 crore worth of provisions. Dissecting the provisions further, it becomes evident that the dip was led by the write-back of Rs360 crore worth of investment depreciation provisions. Importantly, the bank utilised treasury gains to shore up loan loss provisions (up 113% sequentially to Rs304.4 crore).

The asset quality of the bank deteriorated sequentially during the quarter. The gross non-performing assets (GNPA) increased by 12.2% qoq to Rs2,068.2 crore, with the GNPA in percentage terms inching up by 17 basis points qoq to 1.44%. However, the net non-performing asset (NNPA) declined by 16.1% qoq as the bank netted floating provision of Rs550.4 crore against the GNPAs. The resulting provisioning coverage stood at 81.7%, much better than 75.5% during the previous quarter. However, the majority of the accretion in the GNPA is likely to get reversed, since the bank expects the bulk of the incremental non-performing asset (NPA) to get upgraded as standard accounts in the current quarter.

During the quarter, the bank restructured loans worth Rs1,596 crore, in line with the amount of applications pending as on March 31, 2009. Consequently, the bank has restructured total loans worth Rs4,255 crore, which constitute ~4% of the bank's total domestic advances. Dissecting further, ~80% of the incremental loans restructured are from the corporate segment, while the rest are from small and medium enterprise (SME), retail and agri segments.

At the end of Q1FY2010, the advances grew by a robust 28.3% yoy to Rs142,672 crore, while the deposits rose by 28.2% yoy to Rs198,609 crore. Importantly, the current and savings account (CASA) ratio was stable at ~35% during the quarter on a sequential basis.

The bank's capital adequacy ratio (CAR; Basel II) improved to 14.56% on June 30, 2009 from 14.05% in the previous quarter. Out of this 14.56%, the share of tier-I capital was 8.81% and that of tier-II capital stood at 5.75%.

We are revising our FY2010 earnings estimate upwards by 5.7% to factor in the higher treasury gains and lower provisioning charges on account of the investment depreciation provision write-backs. Meanwhile, we are maintaining our FY2011 estimates. At the current market price of Rs417, the stock trades at 5.6x FY2011E earnings per share (EPS), 2.7x FY2011E pre-provisioning profit (PPP) per share and 1.2x FY2011E adjusted book value (ABV) per share. In view of the limited upside from the current levels to our price target of Rs444, we are downgrading our recommendation on the stock to Hold from Buy earlier.

[Investors Please Listen] Bank of India: Disappointing performance: Recommendation: Hold Price target: Rs397 Current market price: Rs319

Cluster: Apple Green

Result highlights

Bank of India (BoI)'s operating performance in Q1FY2010 was disappointing. This was on account of a lower than expected top line growth, margin contraction and evident stress on asset quality during the quarter. The bank reported a net profit of Rs584.3 crore for Q1FY2010, indicating a muted growth of 4.0% year on year (yoy) despite robust treasury gains.

Despite a healthy 20.3% year-on-year (y-o-y) growth in the advances, the net interest income (NII) grew by just 10.1% yoy to Rs1,300.6 crore, as the reported net interest margin (NIM) contracted by 47 basis points yoy and by 56 basis points sequentially. The contraction in the NIM stemmed from a 41-basis-point sequential decline in the yield on advances, which outweighed a 27-basis-point quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) reduction in the reported cost of funds.

The non-interest income grew moderately by 14% yoy to Rs645.9 crore. The sharp decline in the recoveries and the foreign exchange (forex) related income partially offset the spike in the treasury gains (up 253% yoy) during the quarter.

The provisions decreased by 36% yoy, as the bank reversed Rs128 crore of marked-to-market (MTM) provisions made earlier. However, this decline was partially offset by the 23.6% y-o-y increase in the non-performing asset (NPA) provisions and Rs173 crore other provisions mainly pertaining to restructured assets (Rs120 crore).

The asset quality of the bank continued to deteriorate for the third consecutive quarter. The gross NPA (GNPA) increased by a significant 38.2% yoy and by 12.8% quarter on quarter (qoq) to Rs2,787.6 crore. On a relative basis, the percentage of GNPA (% GNPA) increased by 18 basis points qoq to 1.89%. The provision coverage declined to just 55.7% from 74.6% in Q4FY2009. However, the incremental GNPAs during the quarter include one large corporate account (Rs220 crore), which is likely to get upgraded in the current quarter as indicated by the management.

During the quarter the bank restructured loans worth Rs1,600 crore, which is lower compared with Rs1,900 crore worth applications pending as on March 31, 2009. This along with assets worth Rs5,048.7 crore restructured as on March 31, 2009 constitutes around 4.5% of the total outstanding loans as on June 30, 2009.

The advances witnessed a healthy growth of 20.3% yoy (above the industry growth) to Rs147,810 crore on the back of a robust 36.1% y-o-y growth in the corporate segment. Meanwhile, the global deposits grew by a healthy 22.5% yoy to Rs195,021 crore. Importantly, the current account and savings account (CASA) ratio was largely stable at 30.9% after witnessing a continuous decline in the recent quarters.

The capital adequacy ratio (CAR; as per Basel II norms) as on June 30, 2009 stood comfortable at 13.26% though. The tier-I capital adequacy remains comfortable at 9.19%, providing the bank with enough headroom to raise tier-II capital.

We have reviewed our assumptions and fine-tuned our earnings estimates for FY2010 and FY2011 after the Q1FY2010 results of the bank. The bank's Q1FY2010 performance was disappointing in terms of the significant margin contraction, slower growth in credit and core fee income, and higher delinquencies during the quarter. Though the management remains optimistic about improvement in bank's operating performance from hereon, we believe the trend in the asset quality and margins will remain the key monitorable in the quarters to come. At the current market price of Rs319, BoI trades at 5.0x FY2011E earnings per share (EPS), 2.5x FY2011E pre-provisioning profit (PPP) per share and 1.2x FY2011E adjusted book value (ABV) per share. We maintain our Hold recommendation and price target (Rs397) on the stock.

[Investors Please Listen] Hindustan Unilever: Recommendation: Hold Price target: Rs271 Current market price: Rs277

Cluster: Apple Green

Q1FY2010 results: First-cut analysis

Result highlights

Hindustan Unilever Ltd (HUL)'s Q1FY2010 results are ahead of our expectation at the operating level. However, a lower non-operational income and a lower operational income because of foreign exchange (forex) losses on marked-to-market forward contracts resulted in a lower than expected bottom line.

In Q1FY2010 HUL's net sales grew by 7.8% to Rs4,475.7 crore (which is slightly below our expectation of Rs4,506.1 crore), driven by an 11.3% year-on-year (y-o-y) growth in the home and personal care business and an 18.2% y-o-y growth in the foods business.

The actions taken by the company to get its volume growth back on track resulted in a 2% y-o-y volume growth as against a 4.2% y-o-y volume decline recorded in Q5FY2009 (the January-March 2009 quarter). However, we believe significant drivers of this growth were the grammage increases and promotional add-ons offered by the company during the quarter.

In Q1FY2010 the operating profit margin (OPM) improved by 209 basis points year on year (yoy) to 15.4% (ahead of our expectation of a 14.9% for the quarter). This was on the back of the softening prices of the key inputs which resulted in a 125-basis-point y-o-y drop in the raw material cost as a percentage of sales. Though the employee cost and the other expenditures reduced yoy, with a greater emphasis on volume growth the company increased its brand building and promotional activities, which resulted in a 25.8% y-o-y growth in the advertisement and promotional expenditure during the quarter. Thus, the operating profit grew by 24.8% yoy to Rs688.1 crore during the quarter.

The other income stood at Rs60.5 crore in Q1FY2010 as against Rs164.7 crore in Q1FY2009. The 67.9% y-o-y drop in the other operational income was on account of a forex loss of Rs31.8 crore against a forex gain of Rs24.8 crore in Q1FY2009 due to the marked-to-market valuation of the forward contracts. Also, the non-operational other income stood at just Rs33.54 crore in Q1FY2010 as against Rs80.78 crore during the corresponding quarter of the last year.

With a lower other income and a higher tax incidence, the adjusted net profit stood flat at Rs537.2 crore in Q1FY2010 as against Rs543.7 crore in Q1FY2009 (below our expectation of Rs623.4 crore for the quarter).

The post-tax extraordinary gains (includes profit on the sale of properties and investments) stood at Rs6.0 crore in Q1FY2010 as against Rs14.4 crore in Q1FY2009. Thus, the reported net profit declined by 2.7% yoy to Rs543.2 crore in Q1FY2010 from Rs558.2 crore in Q1FY2009.

We will revisit our estimates and price target after the company's conference call tomorrow. At the current market price the stock trades at 25.4x its FY2010E of Rs10.9 and 22.5x its FY2011E of Rs12.3. We maintain our Hold recommendation on the stock.