Wednesday, July 1, 2009

Current account surplus for Q4 FY09, BoP deficit for financial year at USD 20 bn


n  A day after registering positive momentum, bond yields partially erased yesterday's gains as it closed in red for the day. 7.94% 2021, the most liquid bonds, traded in tight range of 4 bps before closing at 7.25% for the day. Though the NDS volumes are in 5-digit, participants are broadly awaiting the release of borrowing program in the union budget on July 6, before initiating any major directional position.

n  Post auction (June 26), 7.94% 2021 has gained popularity among traders as for duration risk similar to 10-year bonds (6.05% 2019) it yielding 24bps high (10-year is currently hovering at 7% mark). 7.94% 2021 managed to attract 38% of the total traded volumes on NDS-OM (INR 120.3 bn).

n  For the first time in 2-months, surplus funds parked with the central bank dipped below the INR 1 tn mark (INR 883 bn) on account of the quarter ending phenomena. Overnight money market also mirrored the trend as total volumes dwindled to INR 441 bn, pushing the average cost northward, to 3.12%.

n  After posting the seventh consecutive quarter of deficit, in the final quarter of FY09 current account posted a positive number of USD 4.75 bn; this is primarily attributed to shrinking oil imports on account of steep drop in crude price in Q4FY09. The number, however, failed to significantly impact the FY09 Balance of Payment (BoP) which posted a deficit of USD 20 bn.

n  Unlike its counterpart (sovereign debt), the non-SLR segment had a busy day; yield across the curve witnessed softening and bidding interest was primarily concentrated in short maturing paper. With 1-year CD plunging to 5.20%, bidding interest shifted in comparatively higher yielding 1.5–3 year maturing paper.

 

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