India's trade deficit continued to remain stable at USD5.2bn for May 2009 as both imports and exports declined by 30% and 40% respectively.
Although the imports for the month were lower by 40% over last year, the fall was driven by a sharp drop of 60% in the oil imports. The non-oil imports failed to pick up as they remained flat sequentially reflecting that there has not been meaningful pick up in the economic activities.
With oil prices averaging to USD68/barrel for June 2009, we believe that the trade deficit may rise to USD7.1-7.4bn for June 2009.
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