Thursday, May 14, 2009

[Investors Please Listen] Reseach Updae

JK Paper Q4FY09 results expectations: Net sales Rs 2.7 bn, PAT Rs 47 mn

JK Paper is expected to post its Q4FY09 and FY09 results on 14th May'2009. We expect company to post revenues of Rs 2.7 bn, growth of 24% YoY driven by 8% volume growth and 14% realisations growth. Volume increase is supported by commissioning of packaging paper plant while realisations growth is supported by prices increases across the products and also improvement in product mix during the year. We expect EBITDA to increase by 22% to Rs 410 mn with EBITDA margins of 15%. We expect PBT to decline by 4.5% to Rs 73 mn due to increase in interest cost. However previous year company reported MAT credit of Rs 82 mn as a result, APAT (excluding M-T-M) forex loss) for the quarter is expected decline by 70% YoY to Rs 47 mn. We expect AEPS for the quarter Rs 0.6 as against Rs 2.0.

GSM subscriber net-additions for April 2009 lower at 9mn v/s 11.3mn in Mar-09

GSM subscriber growth for Apr-09 was bit lower at 9mn (ex-RCOM) v/s 11.25mn in Mar-09 (10.8mn ex-RCOM).  Net-adds for Bharti remained stable at 2.81mn while that of Idea slipped from 1.5mn in Mar-09 to 1.1mn in Apr-09. Vodafone once again reported strong net-adds of 2.8mn and Aircel slightly inched up with net adds of 1.1mn helped by new launches.  During Apr-09, Aircel launched its services in Mumbai circle taking its presence to 16/22 circles and is expected to go pan India in next few months.   Idea Cellular launched services in Orissa circle with which it also has presence in 16/22 circles. Idea plans to launch services in TN by June and rest of India by Dec-09.

We continue to believe that high subscriber net-additions (led by low entry pricing) have little meaning as the incremental revenue contribution is not meaningful. This is also evident from the recent results of the telco's where operators revenue growth was quite lower than the growth in subscriber base.  We maintain Bharti Airtel as only BUY in telecom sector, with target price of Rs952.

Bharat Bijlee Q4FY09E Result Estimates (Result on 15th May)

We expect net sales to increase 1% YoY to Rs2bn. We expect operating margins to be at 19.2% (drop of 500 bps yoy) and operating profits to decline 19.6% yoy to Rs387mn. We expect net profits to decline by 25% YoY to Rs234mn.  The key things to watch out - (1) drop in transformer realizations, (2) order inflow, (3) growth in motor segment. 


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