Tuesday, May 19, 2009

[Investors Please Listen] Research Views

HT Media Q4FY09 Results – profits fall 29% YoY

HT Media reported subdued results for Q4FY09 with adj. net profit decline of 29% YoY to Rs295mn. Reported revenues grew by 6.5% YoY to Rs3338mn despite pressures from economic slowdown driven by 5% growth in advertisement revenues. EBITDA declined by 33.2% YoY to Rs402 mn due to higher newsprint costs and other expenditure. EBITDA margins declined by 715 bps YoY to 12%. While RPAT declined by 43.7% YoY, the APAT declined by 29% YoY to Rs295mn.

During the quarter ad-revenues grew by 5% mainly led by 40% volume growth in Hindi advertisements where as the English volumes remained flay YoY. During the quarter the non-cash revenues (partnership for growth model) were Rs190mn v/s Rs265mn in Q3FY09. During Q4FY09 the company made a provision of Rs60mn towards decline in value of long-term investments which is from non-cash revenues.

The company has planned capex of Rs800mn for FY10 in which Rs400mn would be spent towards launch of Hindi edition in 2 locations and launch of Mint in Kolkatta and Chennai over the next quarter and the remaining Rs400mn for JV with Hubert Burda.

TRF Q4FY09 Results – First Cut Analysis

TRF reported strong operational performance in Q4FY09 mixed results for Q3FY09 – above estimates.  Standalone revenues increased 41% yoy to Rs2,395 mn, exactly in line with our estimates. Project division delivered strong performance – up 52% yoy to Rs2152 mn. We attribute strong growth in Projects division to satisfactory progress in key orders in the order backlog. Product division grew moderately by 13% yoy to Rs527 mn.  Operating margins increased 210 bps yoy to 15.5%, as against our estimate of decline in margins. Expansion in operating margins was primarily due to lower employee costs and other expenditure. Consequently operating profits increased 63% yoy to Rs372 mn, above estimates.  Led by strong operational performance, adjusted net profits grew 55% yoy to Rs239 mn, way above our estimates of 1% yoy growth. TRF reported forex gains of Rs11.5 mn during the quarter.  TRF's consolidated revenues increased 21% yoy to Rs2,561 mn. Operating profits increased 55% yoy to Rs359 mn led by 310 bps yoy expansion in operating margins. Adjusted net profits for the quarter increased 58% yoy to Rs207 mn, above estimates  At CMP the stock is trading at Rs4.7x FY10E standalone earnings of Rs92.9 per share.

Thermax Q4FY09 Results – First Cut Analysis

Strong operational performance – Positive surprise Thermax reported strong operational performance in Q4FY09, ahead our estimates.  Revenues increased 2.8% yoy to Rs9,483 mn, exactly in line with our estimates. This was led by the Energy segment (a key overhang on the stock) which reported pick up in revenue booking after declining in 9MFY09 – up 5% yoy to Rs7,632 mn. The Environment segment however declined 7% yoy to Rs2,023 mn, in line with our estimates.  Operating margins increased 300 bps yoy to 16.8% as against our estimate of 130 bps decline – positive surprise. Expansion in operating margins was led by expansion of 640 bps yoy in margins of environment segment to 20.3%. Energy segment margins declined 170 bps yoy to 13.9%. Consequently operating profits increased 25% yoy to Rs1,592 mn, above estimates. Net profit increased 18.5% yoy to Rs930 mn, above estimates. Despite strong operational performance, we attribute subdued net profit growth to forex loss of Rs259 mn and high interest charges.  At the consolidated level, revenues increased marginally by 2% yoy to Rs10,393 mn while net profits increased 30.5% yoy to Rs1054 mn – above estimates.  With no order inflow during the quarter, the order backlog declined 24% qoq to Rs31.4 bn (up 19% yoy).  At CMP the stock is trading at 15.7X FY10E consolidated earnings of Rs21.3 per share.

Punjab National Bank Q4FY09 result estimates

We are expecting PNB to report a net profit of Rs5.3bn for Q4FY09. The NII is expected to grow by 29.1% to Rs19.6bn and total net income to grow by 31.4% to Rs27.0bn. The operating profit is likely to grow by 29.3% yoy to Rs15.9bn.

L&T bags orders totaling Rs5 bn & signs MoU with GE Hitachi

L&T (Oman) has bagged repeat orders from government and quasi-government customers totaling Rs5.2 bn in Power T&D and Infrastructure sectors.

L&T has secured EPC contract of Rs2.07 bn order from Rural Areas Electricity SAOC, Oman for for 33/11kV substation & 33kV distribution network at Al Duqm (Al Wusta). Tenure of the project is 18 months.  An order worth Rs2.06 bn from Oman Electricity Transmission Co. for construction of 132/33kV grid station including 220kV interconnection transmission line in Oman. Tenure of the project is 15 months. An order worth Rs1.05 bn for construction of Infrastructure & hard landscaping work for second Asian Beach games, Muscat, where L&T is presently executing main package. Tenure of the project is 15 months.

With the above orders L&T's total order book has increased to Rs736 bn. Further, L&T has also signed a MoU with GE Hitachi for cooperation on BWR and ABWR (Advanced Boiling Water Reactor) nuclear power plants. Under the above MoU, L&T, together with GE Hitachi, expects to provide complete construction of nuclear power plants including supply of reactor equipments and systems, valves, electrical and instrumentation products for ABWR plants to be set up in India under the Indo-US 123 Agreement.  Prior to the above MoU, L&T has also signed similar agreements with Astromtroyexport, Russia (VVER 1000 reactors) and Westinghouse Electric Co., USA (for modular nuclear power reactors). L&T has recently bagged an order worth Rs3.45 bn for critical equipment from NPCIL (Kakrapar Atomic Power Project –units 3&4). At CMP, the stock is trading at 24.3X FY10E consolidated earnings of Rs55.5 per share.

Deepak Fertiliser Q4FY09 results expectations- Net Sales Rs 3.7 bn, PAT Rs 174 mn

We expect weak results on strong base effect. We expect 11% growth in revenues to be led by 116% growth in fertiliser while chemicals to decline by 28% due to shut down of methanol plant. We expect EBITDA margins to decline of 680bps to 12.1 which is mainly on account of higher contribution from fertiliser business. Due to sharp drop in EBITDA margins, EBITDA is expected to decline by 29% to Rs 453 mn and PAT is expected to decline by 46% to Rs 174 mn. We expect an EPs of Rs 2 for Q4FY09 as against Rs 3.6 previous year.

For FY09, we expect revenues to increase by 38% to Rs 14.6 bn, EBITDA to increase by 32% to Rs 2.5 bn and APAT to increase by 26% to Rs 1.3 bn resulting in an EPS of Rs 14.7 as against Rs 11.5 previous year.


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